College Football Picks: Road Dog Value Southern Miss +7.5 Over Western KY

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, December 2, 2015 8:10 PM GMT

Join us as we check the college football odds on the Conference USA Championship Game, Southern Mississippi travels to Bowling Green, Kentucky to face the Western Kentucky.

 

Southern Mississippi vs. W. Kentucky (-7-) Noon ET
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles travel to Bowling Green, Kentucky to face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers for this Noon ET kick. The winner will emerge as the Conference USA Champion. The main storylines in this are the high-powered offense of W. Kentucky and the turnaround story that is S. Mississippi. We will follow the latter and their momentum in the role of underdog for the pointspread victory today.

 

Betting Preview
Under 2nd year HC Brohm, the Hilltoppers have once again one of the nation’s most exciting high-scoring teams. After averaging 44/510 on offense last year and winning the Conference USA Title, the Hilltoppers have virtually duplicated those offensive efforts this season. Under the direction of QB Doughty, who has a 42/6 ratio, the Toppers are averaging 44/517 this season.  That is keyed by one of the nation’s best passing attacks that averages 360/9.5 through the air.  In last week’s romp of last year’s Title avenging Marshall team, the Toppers held a yardage advantage 546-273, as they dominated throughout. Today, they bring the momentum of a 4-game winning streak, a 10-2 SU record, an undefeated 8-0 SU mark in conference play and an 8-4 ATS record with (+104) AFP to this title game on their home field. The Achilles Heel is a defense that, although improved from last season, is still allowing over 400 YPG. Enter S. Mississippi, the biggest turnaround story on the college football landscape this season. 

 After authoring over 20 consecutive winning seasons, the Golden Eagles went into sudden decline when then HC Fedora left for N. Carolina, following a 12-2 SU, 2011 season.  In the next 3 years, S. Mississippi went 4-32 SU.  But, the ground work was being layed in each of the previous 2 seasons, after the 1 year tenure of Ellis Johnson led the 2012 Eagles to a 0-12 SU mark.  This year, the rebuilt Eagles enter today with 6 consecutive wins, a 9-3 SU season and 10-1 ATS mark in which they have covered the number by a net 171 points.  Behind the up-tempo offense led by QB Mullens, who has a 35/9 ratio, S. Mississippi is averaging 40/533 on offense.  Mullens is leading a passing offense that averages 336/8.7, including hooking up with WR Thomas, who has nearly 20 YPC.  It is balanced by a nearly 200 YPG running game, led by RB Smith, who averages 7.0 YPR.   Equal improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball, where the Eagles have gone from allowing 35/451 last season to 22/346 this year.  Though this bureau was slow to jump on board the recent run, in the last 2 weeks we have profited from a 6% play on S. Mississippi as our crusher of the year and backed it up with a 4% winner last week in their (58-24) destruction of a solid LA Tech team in which they profited from a (+6) net TO margin as well as a 555 offensive yards.   

 

Final Analysis
The success of W. Kentucky has kept this line propped up.  But, the reality is S. Mississippi is playing better than Western, yet is still getting more than a TD on the betting line.  In invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and grab this value price with one of the hottest teams in the nation.  Don’t be surprised if Southern Mississippi gets the outright victory in what can only be my college football pick.

College Football Pick: Southern Miss +7.5 at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2959439, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]