College Football Picks Road Dog Kansas St Spread vs. Oklahoma

Darin Zank

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 3:09 PM GMT

Since that rousing upset of Oklahoma in the 2003 Big 12 championship game Kansas State is only 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS against the Sooners. The Wildcats will try to reverse that trend when they run with the Sooners Saturday afternoon in Norman.

The Betting Odds
Most of the college football odds opened Oklahoma at right around -10 over Kansas State, but as of Tuesday morning most shops had dropped the Sooners to -8. Those who like the Wildcats to win this game outright could find a price of +265 on the moneyline at Sport Bet.

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The Situation
With only 11 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last season Kansas State looked headed for a middle-of-the-road finish in the Big 12 this season. But so far the Wildcats are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS overall, and 2-0 SU, 1-1 in Big 12 play.

K-State opened this season with a 55-16 victory over Stephen F. Austin, then began its Big 12 campaign with a 32-28 victory at Iowa State, although it came up short in covering the spread as 11-point favorites. The 'Cats then suffered their only loss so far, a 20-14 decision to Auburn, but covered as seven-point home dogs. They then beat UTEP 58-28, and two weeks ago routed Texas Tech 45-13, covering at -14. Kansas State then had last week off.

The Wildcats outgained the Red Raiders 535-347, held the ball for 40 minutes and picked off Tech quarterback Davis Webb four times. But against Auburn, its toughest foe so far, K-State got outgained 359-285 and outrushed 128-40.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, with 14 starters back from a team that went 11-2 last year, went off this season as a the favorites to win the Big 12. But the Sooners have already lost one conference game, and might not be able to afford another defeat, if they want to win the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the national championship playoff.

OU opened with a 48-16 victory over Louisiana Tech, then beat Tulsa 52-7, then topped Tennessee 34-10. The Sooners then opened Big 12 play with a 45-33 win at West Virginia, covering as seven-point road favorites. But Oklahoma then went to TCU and lost 37-33 as three-point road chalk. The Sooners got outgained by the Frogs 469-461, but the real damage was done by a pair of TCU defensive touchdowns.

Last week OU used two defensive/special teams touchdowns of its own to beat Texas in the Red River Shootout 31-26. But in getting outgained 482-232 the Sooners came nowhere close to covering the spread as 16-point favorites.

Oklahoma has actually been outgained its last three games.

 

Wildcats-Sooners Recent History
Last year Oklahoma, as a five-point dog, went to Manhattan and came away with a 41-31 victory. The Sooners outgained the Wildcats 472-372, outrushed them by a lopsided 301-24 and won time-of-possession by a 35-25 margin. That's now you win games and cover spreads.

 

Wildcats-Sooners Betting Trends
K-State is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as dogs on the road.

Oklahoma is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine Big 12 home games.

These teams are a combined 8-3 on the totals this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six games in this series.

 

Wildcats-Sooners Free Pick
Oklahoma just got outgained by Texas by 250 yards; how it won that game is still a bit of a mystery. K-State, meanwhile, has put on three good efforts in a row, and had last week off to prepare. And we've always been fans of Coach Snyder; his teams have always been underrated, and therefore good bets. In fact, the Wildcats are 29-14 ATS over the last three-plus seasons. So while we don't usually go with the flow we'll take K-State, plus the eight points offered at Pinnacle, for our free college football pick for this contest.