College Football Picks: Review & Rewind Week 1 Numbers

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, September 9, 2015 10:26 PM GMT

We are right on track for the continuation of the 2015 College Football Season. Our running results held true to form after the Week 1 games.

In Monday’s article, we graded our August Homework which showed mixed results. When putting it all together, with a heavy dose of my ample experience, there turned out to be significantly more winners than losers. That’s what it is all about!  Today, I am going to take a look at the results of 2015 CFB Week 1 from a statistical and point spread perspective. This will allow us to know if preferred methodologies are still working as we come out of the gate of the current season. 

The article will also survey some averages to see if they are on track with years gone by. Let’s begin with the fundamentals of the running game and TOs. All statistics are for the 38 regularly scheduled games in CFB that were completed from Thursday, September 3rd through Monday, September 7th (Toledo, LSU, Miami OH, and Georgia either postponed or not completely played).

 

10-3 ATS (77%)
These are the results of our Offensive 200 Club Members that rushed AND passed for 200 or more yards, while their opponent did not. This is right on the 76% long-term average.

11-4 ATS (73%)
These are the results for teams who Double Rushed their opponents in Week 1. Like the 200 Club Members it is very similar to the 75% long-term average.

6-1 ATS (83%) 
These are the results for any CFB team that had a +3 or more net TO margin in Week 1. Again, remarkably similar to the 86% winning average in recent seasons. Teams with a +2 net TO margin were 4-2 ATS (67%).

10.7 PPG 
This is the AFP, the average that the 38 games scores finished “Away From The Point Spread.” Consider this to be an excellent job done by the linemaker in Week 1.  In each of the preceding 5 seasons, this number was greater than 12 PPG. If he continues with a performance that is that good, we will be greatly challenged this 2015 CFB Season.  

So, where can we look to make our money this season, if the linemaker’s numbers on the 130 teams we handicap is that good?  

16 OVERS/22 UNDERS
There was clearly linemaker error in the opening week. True enough, games have been accelerating in pace from 2011 with an average score from 54 to 57 PPG last season. But, the linemaker assumed that increase would continue in opening week (a normally low-scoring week as offenses gear up with an average send out of 58 PPG). The true results were an average of 55 PPG being scored with the difference in the results coming when the first 6 games on the Thursday night College Football Odds card went UNDER the posted total.  

13.7 PPG
Another way to make money was with the 45 “Extra” games that were posted online. Unlike the linemaker’s accurate send out that had an average AFP of 10.7 PPG, these 45 games had results that were an average of 13.7 PPG from the line.  In fact, 33/45 of the games landed more than 7 points from the line. Plenty of opportunities there for those who did extra homework! 

All in all, I would say we are right on track for the continuation of the 2015 CFB Season. Our running results held true to form in the first week. We will build on the results in each succeeding week and combine those fundamentals with the situational plays (see today’s article on the Handicapper’s Conundrum) to further increase our winning percentage.