College Football Picks: Rest Favors Miami vs. Cincinnati

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 10:05 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 10:05 PM GMT

We’re going to take an early look at Thursday’s college football matchup between Cincinnati and Miami Florida. Go inside to read the compelling details and our college football pick.

Thursday ESPN National Game features Canes and Bearcats
The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-2) will host the Miami Hurricanes (3-0) on Thursday. The opening kickoff at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati is slated for 7:30 PM ET, and the game will be televised by ESPN. According to college football odds at the time of this writing (9/28), Miami is a 5.0 to 6.0 point road favorite at major sportsbooks, and the total ranges from 66.0 to 67.0. The Bearcats will be out to atone for a 55-24 loss at Miami last season.

 

Rare Rest Factor
This is a very unique situation in terms of both teams rest heading into this game. The last time Miami took the field was during a 36-33 home win over Nebraska back on Saturday 9/19. Cincinnati is coming off a 53-46 loss at Memphis just last Friday (9/25). This is just the eleventh time this exact situation has occurred since 1994. Any Thursday away favorite (Miami) playing with rest, versus an opponent (Cincinnati) playing with no rest, resulted in the road favorite going 7-3 ATS since 1994. The road team won all ten games outright by an average of 15.1 points per contest. As a matter of fact, if they were a road favorite of 7.0 or less, they improved to 4-0 SU&ATS during that same time frame, and had an average winning margin of 17.0 per game.

 

Quarterback Questions but Sufficient Answers
The Bearcats junior starting quarterback Gunner Kiel had to be removed from last week’s loss at Memphis in the first quarter. Kiel sustained a nasty hit to the head, and had to be taken to a local hospital for observation. The Bearcats turned to redshirt freshmen backup Hayden Moore. It certainly looked like a grim situation at that juncture, but it turned out to be hardly the case. All Moore was able to do was pass for 557 yards and four touchdowns. As a matter of fact, the 557 yards passing set a school record. Kiel is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game. Bearcats fans should take solace in knowing their backup is more than capable of handling the starting duties if called upon to do so.

Bearcats QB Gunner Kiel Injury against Memphis

 

Final Analysis
Although Miami hasn’t exactly been great defensively in their last two games against Florida Atlantic and Nebraska, they’ll still be the superior stop unit in this contest. One telling factor when assessing this game is the turnover differential of both teams. Cincinnati is a pathetic -10 in their first four games, and Miami is a stellar +8 during their 3-0 start.

I’m going to have an early small lean on the road favorite for one of my college football picks. BetCris offers me the best option for this specific wager.

College Football Pick: Miami -5 at Bet365

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