College Football Picks: Recent History Adds Value to Oklahoma & 'Over' vs. Kansas State

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 6:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2015 6:00 PM UTC

What will be the mindset of the players on Kansas State and Oklahoma this week? Both schools come off crushing losses as they face off Saturday in Manhattan. Check our college football pick inside.

Sooners Outclassed By Rival Texas
Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) was pretty well dominated in the Red River Rivalry last Saturday in Dallas by a struggling Texas team, which won 24-17. That one-dimensional Texas offense rushed for 313 yards and passed for only 55 on 12 attempts. Those 55 yards passing were UT's fewest in a win over Oklahoma since 1970 and fewest in any win since 1983. The Sooners, meanwhile, managed only 67 on the ground.

Texas never trailed in the game. The Sooners were down just seven and got possession with 6:05 remaining, but two sacks forced OU to punt. The Longhorns then killed the clock. Texas improved to a shocking 6-2 since 1989 in Red River games in which it was unranked and the Sooners were ranked.

Now the Sooners have no wiggle room to win the Big 12 or reach the College Football Playoff. If OU wins this game, it should also win the next three after that (vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, vs. Iowa State). But then it closes at No. 2 Baylor, vs. No. 3 TCU and at No. 16 Oklahoma State. Let those Bob Stoops to USC rumors begin!

The good news: Under Stoops, the Sooners are 15-1 in the game after they play Texas (only loss was last year to Kansas State) and 6-0 after a loss to Texas. Oklahoma has not lost back-to-back regular season games since Oct. 2 and 9, 1999, Stoops’ debut season. OU has won 34 consecutive regular-season games following a loss.

Oklahoma is 3-2 against the spread on college football odds this season and 2-3 'over/under.'


K-State Can't Hold Big Leads
Any chance Kansas State (3-2, 0-2) had of winning the Big 12 title vanished last week in a 52-45 home loss to No. 2 TCU that still has to hurt -- the Wildcats are so close to being unbeaten as they also lost by just two at Oklahoma State the game prior. Against the Frogs, K-State dominated early and took a 35-17 lead into intermission. It still led 42-31 midway through the fourth. But then TCU quarterback and Heisman candidate Trevone Boykin started to go nuts. He ran for two scores in the fourth -- one a 69-yarder -- and capped the comeback with the winning 55-yard touchdown pass to Josh Doctson with 1:10 left.

KSU coach Bill Snyder has been under fire a bit this week as he chose to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the 20-yard line that tied the score 45-45 with 1:47 remaining. Jack Cantele made the 37-yarder, but the Frogs needed only two plays to score that winning touchdown. K-State fell to 3-50 all-time against top-five opponents.

Snyder called a timeout before Cantele’s kick and said “I was close” to going for the first down. “At the end of the day it was just a bad choice on my part. Hindsight tells me if I had to do it again, I’d do it differently. I’m totally responsible for that.”

K-State also blew a 15-point first-half lead in the loss to Oklahoma State. Prior to those back-to-back losses, K-State had won a national-best 49 consecutive games when leading at halftime. The Wildcats scored 28 points the first half at OSU and just six in the second half, 35 points the first half against TCU and 10 the second half. The Wildcats scored no third-quarter points in each. Yet they are a combined 11-for-11 on touchdowns when reaching the red zone in those two games.

With two losses already in conference and with TCU and Baylor both unbeaten, the chances for a Big 12 title are all but gone. KSU is 3-2 ATS on college football picks and 3-2 O/U.


Last Meeting
Oklahoma was a 7-point favorite on college football odds (total of 54) last year when it hosted K-State last year. The Sooners were upset 31-30. OU kicker Michael Hunnicutt (no longer a Sooner) missed an 18-yard field goal with 3:53 left and the Wildcats were then able to run out the clock. Hunnicutt, a very good kicker normally, also missed another short field goal and had an extra point blocked. Jake Waters (gone now) passed for 225 yards and two touchdowns for the Wildcats. Oklahoma's Sterling Shepard (still around) tied a school record with 15 catches and had 197 yards receiving. Trevor Knight passed for 318 yards and three touchdowns. Knight is now OU's backup QB. The Sooners are 5-0 under Stoops in Manhattan, winning all five by double digits. The visiting team has won the last four meetings in this series. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Sooners are 11-1 against teams they lost to the previous season.

OU is 24-10 ATS in its past 34 after a loss. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings overall. 

College Football Picks: Oklahoma -4 & Over 56 at BetOnline

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