College Football Picks: Purdue vs. Wisconsin

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 20, 2013 6:40 PM GMT

The Purdue Boilermakers and Wisconsin Badgers get their Big 10 schedules started on Saturday in Madison with kickoff slated for 3:30 PM ET. Let's review the betting odds for our NCAAF Picks!

According to current college football odds the Badgers are a 24.0-point favorite and the total is set at 48.5. My college football odds service shows that there’s been no change from the opening line of 24.0 and 62% of public money has been wagered on the home favorite thus far. This series has been dominated by Wisconsin in recent years. The Badgers are a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 games versus Purdue winning by an average of 23.1 points per game.

Highway Robbery

Wisconsin was absolutely robbed in last week’s 34-32 road loss at Arizona St. in which they easily covered as a 6.5-point underdog for our winning NCAA Football Picks. The referees mishandled the final few seconds of the game letting the clock run out with the Badgers in position to spike the ball, and depriving them a chance to attempt a game winning field goal on the final play of regulation time. The NCAA issued an apology to Wisconsin the next day citing a blatant error made by the officials pertaining to the handling of the clock in the final seconds of the contest.

Home Sweet Home

Wisconsin has gone a terrific 56-6 straight up in their home stadium since the start of the 2004 season. Unfortunately they lost their last 2 home games a season ago to Michigan St. 16-13 and to undefeated Ohio St. 21-14. Those two loses ended a 8-0 SU&ATS run at home versus conference opponents. If Purdue is thinking of an outright upset they better think again. Wisconsin is a perfect 50-0 straight up since the start of the 2004 season as a double-digit favorite. In that same time frame the Badgers are a very good 12-7 ATS as a favorite of 21.0 or more. Finally going against the Badgers as a conference home favorite has been the quickest route to going broke in recent years. Wisconsin is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in that role, and a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS in the last 4 when favorite by 22.0 or more while winning by an astronomical 51.7 points per game. Couple that with the fact that the Boilermakers are 0-26 straight up in their last 26 as an away underdog of 10.0 or more, and you have a better chance of winning the lottery than Purdue pulling an outright upset on Saturday.

The Road Has Been Unkind

Purdue is an abysmal 5-23 in their last 28 road games including 3-20 in their last 23 as an away underdog. The Boilermakers are a money draining 2-6 ATS overall as an underdog when facing an opponent coming off a straight up loss.

Purdue Positives

Purdue is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.0 or more following a home straight up loss. In addition they played Notre Dame extremely tough last week before losing 31-24 while easily covering as a 18.0-point underdog. Finally they have a new head coach in Darrell Hazell. All Hazell did a season ago is lead Kent St. to an 11-1 regular season record. They lost to Northern Illinois 44-37 in overtime in the MAC championship game that cost the Golden Flashes an unprecedented invitation to a BCS bowl game. 

Check out the Opening Odds Report for Week 4!

 

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My Angle

Any conference home favorite of 20.0 or more that’s coming off a straight up loss in which they allowed 34 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog ATS win is 16-4 ATS since the start of the 1980 season.

Free College Football Pick: a very small lean on Wisconsin minus the points at bet365.