College Football Picks: Prime Spot for Ole Miss Letdown After Huge Upset of Alabama Prompts Small Lean on Vanderbilt +24.5

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 11:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 11:30 PM UTC

We’re going to give some insight into Saturday’s game between Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Go inside to read our betting preview article culminating with a college football pick on the point spread.

Vanderbilt and the Ole Miss Bump Heads in Upcoming SEC Clash
Ole Miss will host Vanderbilt in a SEC showdown on Saturday. The opening kickoff at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi is slated for 7:00 PM ET and the game will be aired on ESPNU. Current (9/22) college football odds indicate that Ole Miss is a 24.5 point home favorite and the posted total is 55.5. Ole Miss was a 41-3 winner as an 18.0 point favorite at Vanderbilt last season. You may be surprised to know, Vanderbilt has won each of their last three visits to Oxford.


Commodores Coming Off a Confidence Booster
It may have been just a win over a FCS opponent last Saturday, but it was a much needed one for Vanderbilt. They defeated Austin Peay 47-7 for their first victory of the season. Despite not covering as a 47.0 point favorite, the Commodores thoroughly dominated from start to finish, outgaining APU by a wide 542 to 144 in total yards. Considering they were 3-11 since the beginning of the 2014 season prior to last week, any win is a step in the right direction. However, not to rain on the Commodores parade, but their only four wins in their previous fifteen games have come against Massachusetts, Charleston Southern, Old Dominion, and Austin Peay. Two of those wins were versus FCS opponents, and the other two came versus programs that are still in their formative years at the FBS level.


Guarding Against Complacency
Ole Miss is coming off a monumental win for a school that’s suffered through some lean years on the gridiron in recent decades. They went into Tuscaloosa and knocked off the #2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide last Saturday by a score of 43-37. It was the first time in their program’s long storied history that they defeated Alabama in consecutive years. The upset victory also catapulted them up twelve spots to a #3 national ranking. Their biggest obstacles on Saturday will be trying to avoid a huge mental letdown after such a huge win, overconfidence against an opponent they beat by 38 on the road last year, and not looking ahead to their game in Gainesville against Florida.


Final Analysis
Recent college football ATS betting history indicates this will be an optimum spot for the large underdog to sneak inside the number. Vanderbilt outgained APU last week by a whopping 398 yards. Since 2006, any underdog of 21.5 to 31.0, coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 yards or more, resulted in that underdog going 33-8 ATS (80.5%). The average line in those 41 contests was 25.8, and the favorite had only a +15.8 point per game differential, while the underdog covered by 7.0 points or more on 55% of those occasions. That system also improves to 16-2 ATS since 2011, and a perfect 8-0 since 2013.

This isn’t going to be one of my top college football picks of the week. In terms of just strictly opinion, I’ll have a very small lean on the road underdog at bet365.

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