College Football Picks: Prime Betting Situation on Georgia Tech +6.5 over FSU

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 2:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 2:33 PM UTC

When it comes to difficulty of opponent, the Yellow Jackets get the nod as they faced two top 25 teams in Notre Dame and Clemson. They lost both games, can they be our college football pick?

Florida State vs.Georgia Tech 7:00 ET ESPN2
Florida State visits Georgia Tech for this 7 pm ET kick as televised on ESPN2.  This is a matchup of teams who played for the ACC Title in 2 of the previous 3 years.  Last year, Georgia Tech lost the title game to Florida State (37-35), being narrowly outgained 488-465. Yet, their trademark triple-option offense was on display, as they outrushed the Seminoles 331-179.  

This year, it is a matchup of teams headed opposite directions. Florida State continues to roll at 6-0 SU, meaning their only loss in the last 2+ years has come in their Bowl game last year (a 59-20 loss to Oregon). Their record in that timeframe is now 33-1 SU.  As if that is not enough for the public to climb on board at this relatively miniscule number, consider the plight of Georgia Tech.  After devouring creampuffs, Alcorn and Tulane, to open the season, Tech has gone 0-5 SU ATS losing to Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson and Pitt. That is a further reason why no one will be looking their way this Saturday evening.  

From a fundamental perspective, the public expects Florida State (with a 114/3.5 defensive front) to shut down the Georgia Tech triple option that is averaging 287/5.6. Note that did not happen last year, when Tech rambled in that playoff game for 331 overland yards!

Florida State continues to play smart and winning football under 6th year HC Fisher.  An example of that is that Florida State has yet to have a negative turnover margin in a game this season. In fact, their signal caller, Notre Dame transfer QB Golson, has yet to throw an interception on the season. Last week, the Seminoles played a smart game in outgaining Louisville 510-406, converting a (+2) net TO margin to a 41-21 victory. Georgia Tech, in losing its 5th straight game, was dominating a good Pitt defense at the half before clever, first year Panther HC Narduzzi made some key adjustments, which allowed Pitt to prevail (31-28) despite the fact Georgia Tech won the overland battle 376-200.


Final Analysis 
Set ups such as this are typical of my lone ranger selections on this site, which have seen combined college football & NFL lone ranger selections go 8-3-1 ATS the last 6 weeks.  Again this week, no one but you, me and the lone ranger are going to suit up against Florida State at this price point.  That virtually guarantees another ATS winner.  I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me for my college football pick with Georgia Tech as the play of the week.   

College Football Pick: Georgia Tech +6.5 at Bet365

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