Champ Week Line Movers: Bulldogs Lead Power 5 Value Pack

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 29, 2018 9:47 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 29, 2018 9:47 PM UTC

Champ Week is here. Which of the Power 5 title contenders belong in your college football picks? Maybe the Georgia Bulldogs, now that their line has moved to +14.

Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record through Week 13:
15-16 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 1-3 Totals


Can you feel the excitement in the air? It’s Champ Week, folks. Conference titles will be up for grabs Saturday. So will position in the College Football Playoff race. The more important the games get, the more public money there will be for us to scoop, so let’s take a look at the four most important games on Saturday’s schedule and see how the college football odds have moved since the open. Spoiler alert: The underdogs have all the value.

Big 12: No. 14 Texas vs. No. 5 Oklahoma (noon ET, ABC)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3680862, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,1096,999991,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

How sweet is this? We get a rematch of the Red River Showdown from Week 6, which the Longhorns (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) won 48-45 as 7-point puppies. No doubt the Sooners (11-1 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) will be out for revenge, especially when a win will likely propel them into the CFP. But they’ve already moved from -4.5 to -8, even while our consensus reports show 55-percent support for Texas. FiveThirtyEight projects OU to win 69 percent of the time – nice – which falls somewhere between -6.5 and -7 for an equivalent vig-free spread. We’ll buy Texas +8 for a dollar.

SEC: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Alabama (4 p.m. ET, CBS)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3669320, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,1096,999991,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

This is a rematch of last year’s National Championship Game, which was really a tale of two halves – the first with Jalen Hurts at QB for Alabama (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS), and the second with Tua Tagovailoa at the controls. Tagovailoa was the difference-maker, and now that he’s the starter for 'Bama, things look bleak for the Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS). They’ve moved from +10.5 to as high as +14; the projections think +4.5 is more reasonable, so fade the Tide at your leisure/peril.

ACC: Pittsburgh vs. No. 2 Clemson (8 p.m. ET, ABC)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3677784, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,1096,999991,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

How the heck did we get here?! The Tigers (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) are obviously one of the best programs in football. Pittsburgh (7-5 SU and ATS) finished in a four-way tie atop the ACC Coastal. There should be some value in the underdogs for your college football picks now that they’ve moved from +23.5 to +27.5; the opening line was spot on with the projections, but only 38 percent of bettors are on Pitt at press time.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

What a big time win for the Buckeyes! pic.twitter.com/3ebTf4SrfV

— The Buckeye Nut (@TheBuckeyeNut) November 29, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Big Ten: No. 21 Northwestern vs. No. 6 Ohio State (8 p.m. ET, Fox)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3681395, "sportsbooksIds":[169,19,1096,999991,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

If the Sooners honk the Big 12 title game, you can bet that Ohio State (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) will come out with guns blazing in this one. They need a win to stay in the CFP mix, and the Wildcats (8-4 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) are there for the taking – but again, the underdogs look tasty after moving from +13 to as high as +14.5. The projections say something like +10.5 would be reasonable. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

comment here