College Football Picks: Play Navy +14 to Cover Spread vs. Notre Dame

Charles Stark

Saturday, October 10, 2015 12:11 PM GMT

Beating the Irish in Week 6 at home is almost an impossible task. But I do think they will stay within the number & keep this game pretty close as Navy always seems to play Notre Dame tough.

College Football Odds
After beating Notre Dame in 2009 and 2010, Notre Dame followed up by thumping Navy in 2011 and 2012. In the last two seasons Navy has played Irish tough losing by four points in 2013 and then 10 points last year. So although Notre Dame has the potential to blow them out I look for Navy to keep this game close. This is always a huge game for the Midshipmen. College Football Odds makers came out with this number at +16 but it is since moved and right now you can get the Midshipmen at +14 at most betting platforms. The best odds I can see right now are at Pinnacle Sports +14 at -109. For one of your college football picks I recommend backing Navy getting the two touchdowns.

 

Navy Midshipmen
Offensively Navy comes in averaging 35.3 points per game, 395.3 yards per game, and a third-down 58.14% conversion rate which ranks second in all of college football. I really like their starting quarterback, Keenan Reynolds who has been a solid leader and leads the team in yards rushed and touchdowns. That is no surprise with this Navy option attack. Today they are facing a rushing defense in Notre Dame that allowed 216 yards against a similar offense in Georgia Tech. That is actually some good numbers favoring the Irish, but I think Georgia Tech is a little bit overrated this year, and as mentioned next to the Army game this is Navy's biggest game of the year.

Defensively Navy is allowing 16.7 points per game, 335.7 yards per game, and a third-down 41.46% conversion rate. Below points against them are due to two main factors. First, because of their attack the keep possession and run a lot of clock which limits time of possession for other teams. Second, they simply have not played a good offense so far this season, at least none like the Irish that can be two on the ground and in the air. Still, they have play well and should be able to get enough stops to keep this game within the number.

 

Notre Dame
Brian Kelly thinks if his team to go undefeated from here on out they might have a shot at the college football playoffs. I think they have a good chance of this until they gets to Stanford the last game of the year. Offensively Notre Dame is averaging 37.2 points per game, 512.4 yards per game, and a third-down 40% conversion rate. Their offense ranks among the best in college football ranking in the top 20 in a lot of key categories. Their rushing attack is extremely tough gaining 251 yards per game as they run the ball 56.58% of the time. For Navy to stay in this game they are simply going to have to make a couple extra stops, but they been pretty good at stopping the run and I like for them to play their best game of the year against this good Irish offense.

Defensively Notre Dame is allowing 20.6 points per game, 332.4 yards per game, and a third-down 28.77% conversion rate. This is going to be the guts of this game is that the Irish will have to stop Navy on third-down conversions. Two really good opposing forces here with Navy rank second in the country in keeping the chains moving, and Notre Dame ranked 15th in stopping that aspect.

This is just too many points in my opinion for a good Navy team that should come in with a lot of confidence. With USC coming up on the schedule next week Notre Dame might look past Navy just a little bit in this matchup which might make this game closer than people anticipate. Look for Navy to put in a couple play action passes when Notre Dame isn't expecting it to keep possession and the chains moving. For my College Football Pick of the day I'm going to take Navy plus the points. Notre Dame wins this, but closer to 10 points than two touchdowns.

College Football Pick: Navy +14 at -109 at Pinnacle

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