College Football Picks: Play Home Dog Value with Nevada +11 Against Overrated Arizona

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 8, 2015 12:42 AM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 8, 2015 12:42 AM GMT

Which one of these teams will bounce back from subpar performances in their season opening wins versus inferior opposition? Go inside and read our informative betting preview article to find out.

Nevada Looks for Revenge at Home Versus Arizona
Nevada will host Arizona on Saturday in a non-conference matchup. The opening kickoff at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada is slated for 7:00 PM ET. These teams met last season in Tucson, and Arizona escaped with a 35-28 win but failed to cover as a 20.0 point favorite.

 

Last Week Results
Arizona opened the season with a 42-32 home win over Texas San Antonio. The Wildcats fell well short of covering as a huge 33.5 point favorite. Quite frankly they were extremely fortunate to just win the game outright. UTSA held a sizable 525-392 margin in total yards over Arizona. The Wildcats were beneficiaries of a pick six and also recovered a Roadrunners fumble in the end zone for another score.

Nevada was a 31-17 winner over FCS UC-Davis in their season opener. Similar to their upcoming opponent (Arizona) on Saturday, they also failed to cover as a 24.0 point favorite. The Wolfpack rushing attack was impressive in last week’s win. That was evidenced by amassing 232 yards on the ground against UC Davis. They’ll look to expose an Arizona defense on Saturday which allowed 193 yards rushing to UTSA in its season opener. Nevada has gone a very respectable 27-10 in their last 37 home games, and that includes an upset win over Washington State of the PAC-12 last season.

 

Significant Injury for Arizona
Last week’s Arizona win was dampened by the knee injury sustained to linebacker Scooby Wright. That unfortunate occurrence will keep Wright out for an indefinite period of time. Wright was the PAC-12 “Defensive Player of the Year” in 2014. He had a whopping 163 tackles including 15 that went for a loss, and also accounted for 14 sacks last year. That’s a huge loss for an already suspect defense, and in addition to losing Wright’s valuable leadership on the field.

 

College Football ATS Betting Angle
Since 1983, any non-conference home underdog (Nevada) of 13.0 or less, playing with revenge in games 2 through 6 of the season, and is coming off a non-conference straight up win, resulted in that home underdog going 74-40 ATS (64.9%). The home underdog also went 46-67-1 (40.4%) straight up in those contests.

 

Final Analysis
Nevada proved they could stay with Arizona a season ago during a narrow 7 point loss. They should be able to run the ball effectively against the Arizona front seven, and in turn will open up some passing opportunities. I like the home underdog value in this contest for one of my college football picks on Saturday. According to current (9/7) college football betting odds, Arizona is an 11.0 point favorite across the major sportsbook landscape. However, Heritage requires the least amount of juice for this wager.

College Football Pick: Play on Nevada +11.0 (-105).

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