College Football Picks: Penn State vs. Indiana to Go 'Over'

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 5:01 PM GMT

The betting public anticipates a low-scoring affair in Bloomington, but I expect both Penn State and Indiana to open things up offensively Saturday.

A Wrong Turn
Penn State has dropped four consecutive games since starting the season with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record, which can’t be ignored when making your Week 11 College Football Picks, as it comes off a 20-19 setback to Maryland as three-point home favorites last Saturday.

The Nittany Lions are certainly capable of winning two of their final four games to gain bowl eligibility, especially since they’ve captured 16 of 17 all-time meetings in this Big Ten Conference series. Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, with the UNDER going 7-2 in that situation.

 

Offensively Challenged
Indiana is mired in a three-game losing streak, while it has been out-gained by 651 combined yards in dropping its last two, including a 34-10 defeat to the Michigan Wolverines as 7.5-point road underdogs in Week 10.

The Hoosiers have gotten virtually no production out of their quarterbacks since starter Nate Sudfeld went down with a season-ending injury last month, with Zander Diamont completing 10-of-23 passes for just 35 yards. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, the school is 1-5 SUATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, with the OVER cashing in five of those six opportunities.

 

Hackenberg
Nittany Lions signal-caller Christian Hackenberg continues to lead the Big Ten in averaging 254.8 passing yards and 22.9 completions per game, which is important to consider when monitoring the line movements for this matchup at Memorial Stadium. The sophomore ranks among the top-10 in Penn State history in completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns since arriving on campus.

 

Top Rusher
College Football handicappers will certainly have an interest in potentially backing the Hoosiers as home underdogs, as they’ve got the top statistical running back in the country, while they earned their first-ever victory in 17 tries against the Nittany Lions in 2013.

Tevin Coleman is the main player to analyze in this affair, as he’s on pace to rush for 1,950 yards, which would break the school record in that category. The junior running back will face a stiff challenge against Penn State—a stop unit that leads the country in allowing just 77.4 rushing yards per game.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their Big Ten football picks, as the OVER is 13-4-1 in the Hoosiers’ last 18 home games. Feel free to check out SBR's NCAAF Betting odds before you make your pick.  

Free College Football Pick:  Over 44 at Pinnacle

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