College Football Picks: Overrated Michigan St. Will be Exposed vs. Ohio State (-13)

Ross Benjamin

Friday, November 20, 2015 9:39 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 9:39 PM UTC

We’re going to examine Saturday’s mammoth Big Ten clash between #3 Ohio State and #9 Michigan State. Go inside to read our highly informative betting preview article which culminates with a college football pick.

Spartans at “The Shoe”
Ohio State and Michigan State will collide on Saturday in a game which has national implications. The opening kickoff at “The Horseshoe” in Columbus, Ohio is slated for 3:30 PM ET. Current (11/20) college football odds at Bovada have Ohio State as a 13.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 53.0. Ohio State defeated Michigan State 49-37 as a 4.0 point underdog at East Lansing last season. As a matter of fact, the road team has won each of the previous four meetings between these teams.


Overrated and Lucky
Those of you who’ve followed me this season are well aware of the fact that I haven’t been enamored with Michigan State. The Spartans are 9-1 this year, but four of those victories have come by 7 points or less, and they could easily be 6-4 or 7-3 at this juncture. They were especially lucky in the miracle finish at Michigan in a game they had no business winning. I fully expect the general public to overwhelmingly side with Michigan State as a double digit underdog, and that’s just fine by me.


Battle Tested and Ready
Ohio State has sure received a lot of criticism for a team that’s gone 10-0 this season, and is currently #3 in the college football playoff rankings. The Buckeyes have won eight of their ten games by 14 points or more, and that includes each of the previous five. The defense has really flexed its muscle in recent wins, allowing 14 points or less in each of their previous four games. Since head coach Urban Meyer has taken over in Columbus, Ohio State has gone 48-3, and they’re 15-0 in conference home games. During Meyer’s tenure, Ohio State has gone 8-0 ATS when installed as a conference home favorite of 10.0 or more, versus an opponent coming off a win, and they won by an average of 30.8 points per game. They will be in that exact situation on Saturday.


College Football Betting Angle and Pick
Any undefeated conference home favorite (Ohio State) of 38.0 or less, playing in Game 10 or 11 of the season, and is coming off a conference away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.5 points or more, resulted in that home team going 22-5 ATS (81.5%) since 1985.

I’m looking for Ohio State to silence their critics, and make a huge statement on Saturday. One of my college football picks this week will echo that statement.

College Football Picks: Play on Ohio State -13 (-115) at Bovada

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