College Football Picks: Oregon +3 Has Great Betting Value vs. Washington

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 15, 2015 7:23 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 7:23 PM UTC

The Pac-12 clash between Oregon and Washington is our History Book Game of the Week. Go inside to find out who we like for our college football picks.

Oregon vs. Washington (-3), Saturday, October 17, 10:30 PM ET ESPN2
Oregon visits Washington this Saturday evening in a 10:30 ET time kick, as televised by ESPN 2.  This is a game which sees each team coming off diverse performances in their previous outing and with the proud Oregon program at a crossroads in their season.  A look at the numbers below and today’s price will clearly show you why this is my college football pick as the History Book Game of the Week. Now that Oregon is a solid underdog on the betting line, we have the college football odds clearly in our favor. 

It won’t take far into this game to know whether Oregon has tossed the towel on their season.  A Week 2 loss to Michigan State eroded the hopes of a program whose primary goal is always an undefeated season and a National Championship.  When they lost to Utah (62-20) on their home field in Week 4 due to a barrage of TOs, one certainly had to question the resolve of the Ducks.  A 2nd half blowout at Colorado the next week gave hope to the program.  But last week, playing off a previous home loss to Utah, the Ducks turned in another clunker, losing outright (45-38) as 17 point home chalk to Washington St.  The Cougars’ passing game lit up the Oregon secondary for over 500 yards.  They failed to get the victory, despite a 410-136 overland edge.  The shocking loss drops the Ducks to 3-3 SU, 1-4 ATS and a CFB next to worst to N. Texas (-103) net AFP.  Now, they travel to Washington, one of the youngest teams in the Pac-12 under 2nd year HC Petersen. 

The young Huskies just pulled the biggest upset of the Petersen regime with a (17-12) Thursday night upset of USC as 17-point underdog.  That runs the Washington record to 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS with a net AFP of (+53).  Combined with Oregon’s (-103) AFP, that is a 156 net AFP differential favoring Oregon.  That has resulted in a swing of over 2 TDs from where this line would have been opening week.  It also sets up multiple situational, technical and historical considerations that favor Oregon. 

We know from previous weeks that we look to play any .500 or better team, who after 5 games, is 3 or more games under .500 ATS and is coming off an ATS loss.  Combined with a foe (Washington), who is off a straight up dog win of magnanimous proportions, only aids our situation.  Technically speaking, it should be noted that history for the Ducks finds them to be 26-3 SU on the conference road, along with 11-2 ATS in this competitive price range.  Then, there is the matter of series history.   In the last 10 years, Oregon has won this game by 17 or more points every year, covering the number in each of the previous 4 years and in 9 of the last 10 years.  With an average line of 18 PPG and no line less than double digits, and now they are an underdog?  Sure would be nice if we could confirm that starting QB Adams (finger) was going to play!

College Football Picks: Oregon +3 at The Greek

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