College Football Picks: New Mexico State vs. UCLA

Jeff Grant

Thursday, September 19, 2013 6:34 PM GMT

The UCLA Bruins land in a major letdown spot against the New Mexico State Aggies Saturday. The two teams prepare to meet at the Rose Bowl.


Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds for this non-conference matchup in Week 4, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET on the Pac-12 Network.

Disappointing results

New Mexico State is 0-3 SUATS through three games this season, with the OVER cashing in each of those contests for our NCAA Football Picks.  The program has allowed at least 42 points in each of those affairs.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the Aggies are 3-21 SU and 10-14 ATS as underdogs, with the OVER going 16-8 in those 24 opportunities. 

Emotional victory

UCLA picked up a 41-21 victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers as 1.5-point road underdogs last Saturday, as it outscored the home squad 38-0 over the final 37 minutes of the contest. 

The Bruins were just six days removed from the death of wide receiver Nick Pasquale, who was struck by a vehicle while walking in his hometown. 

I’m expecting a letdown in this spot, as the program continues to deal with the raw emotion of that event, while looking ahead to its Pac-12 Conference opener against the Utah Utes on Oct. 3.

Forcing turnovers 

The Aggies must force a couple turnovers in this game if they plan on staying within the point spread—a statistical category that the program emphasized during camp under first-year head coach Doug Martin.

New Mexico has forced six turnovers through three games—just three fewer than the team collected during the entire 2012 campaign. 

A large number

College football handicappers need to realize that the Bruins have kicked off as favorites of 31 or more points just once since 1992, but it has compiled a 16-3 SU record against teams from the WAC.

Second-year head coach Jim Mora has won five of six games against non-conference opponents during his time in Westwood, as he likely intends to play numerous true freshmen in this affair before moving on to Pac-12 play.

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Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Aggies, as the Bruins are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games versus teams with a losing record.

College Football Pick: New Mexico St Aggies +42.5