College Football Picks: Nevada vs San Diego State

Joe Freda

Tuesday, October 1, 2013 6:36 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2013 6:36 PM GMT

The San Diego State Aztecs and Nevada Wolf Pack played a wild affair last October, with San Diego State prevailing as a seven-point road dog in a 39-38 overtime win.

Friday’s college football betting has the Aztecs hosting their rivals in this year’s rematch, returning to action at Qualcomm Stadium.

Wolf Pack edge out Air Force

Nevada notched a second straight win in last week’s 45-42 victory over the Air Force Falcons, while falling short of collecting as 11-point home ‘chalk.’ The Wolf Pack rallied from behind with 15 unanswered points, capped off by quarterback Cody Fajardo taking in a late go-ahead score. 

Fajardo added three touchdowns through the air, completing 38-of-54 strikes for 389 passing yards. Wolf Pack wide receivers Brandon Wimberly and Aaron Bradley united for 26 catches, reaching the end zone for one score each. 

Nevada’s Kendall Brock logged a team-high 84 rushing yards on 20 carries, while the Wolf Pack defense gave up 375 yards on the ground. The shootout’s combined 87 points leaped OVER the ‘total’ of 58 ½, with Nevada recording 35 first downs in its 32 minutes of possession.

Aztecs, Pumphrey end slide

San Diego State halted a three-game losing streak with last Saturday’s 26-16 triumph against the New Mexico State Aggies, while failing to cash as a 16-point road favorite. The Aztecs held New Mexico State to 268 total yards, allowing a stingy 4-for-16 mark in third and fourth down conversions.

Aztecs running back Donnel Pumphrey took in three touchdowns, dashing for 167 yards on 19 carries. The freshman helped his squad move the chains for 21 first downs in 34 minutes with the ball, while coming away with 26 unanswered points after trailing early.

San Diego State’s Quinn Kaehler notched 229 passing yards, connecting 22-of-34 attempts. Aztecs junior David Lamar returned a blocked extra point to start his squad’s rally, while the contest’s combined 42 points ducked UNDER the ‘total’ of 42.

Back the Aztecs as home ‘chalk’

San Diego State opened as a 5 ½-point home favorite at The Greek, with initial NCAAF betting action on Nevada dropping the number to 4 ½. The weather forecast in San Diego calls for a clear 73 degrees, with calm winds.

I am going against the early ‘steam’ in this spot, backing the Aztecs as home ‘chalk’ as part of this week’s sports picks.

San Diego State should keep building from last week’s momentum here, while continuing to improve its octane after notching 28 PPG in its last pair of contests. The Aztecs have cashed with a 5-2 spread record in their last seven matchups that followed a victory, while going 5-0 ATS in their most recent five contests that came after a spot of giving up less than 20 points.

Nevada has surrendered 60 PPG in its first two road dates, outclassed by the UCLA Bruins and Florida State Seminoles. The Wolf Pack get a drop in class here compared to those duels, but have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Mountain West Conference contests.

 

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Look for San Diego State to hand Nevada another losing ticket here, adding to the 1-6 ATS mark for the Wolf Pack in their last seven battles away from home.

College Football Picks: San Diego State Aztecs -4 ½ 

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