College Football Picks: Mississippi State vs South Carolina

Joe Freda

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 5:20 PM GMT

The South Carolina Gamecocks play host to the Mississippi State Bulldogs at the Williams-Brice Stadium. Find out where we believe the best value lies for Saturdays game!

The South Carolina Gamecocks ended a three-game road stretch with last week’s 27-24 overtime win over the Missouri Tigers, cashing as three-point dogs. Steve Spurrier’s squad returns home for Saturday’s NCAAF betting, facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Gamecocks rally past Mizzou

South Carolina erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter, including a pair of touchdown passes from quarterback Connor Shaw. The Gamecocks controlled the ball for 34 minutes of regulation, marching for 498 total yards and 28 first downs.

South Carolina’s Bruce Ellington and Mike Davis logged 10 catches each, with Ellington reaching the end zone twice. Davis added 51 yards of rushing on 19 carries, while the Gamecocks committed three turnovers.

Gamecocks kicker Elliot Fry connected a 40-yard field goal in the second overtime, giving his side its final go-ahead. The duel’s combined 51 points ducked beneath the ‘total’ of 54, moving the UNDER to 3-2 in South Carolina’s last five games.

Bulldogs edge out Kentucky

Mississippi State held off the Kentucky Wildcats in last Thursday’s 28-22 victory, while failing to cash as a 12-point home favorite. Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott completed a pair of scoring strikes, finishing with 268 passing yards.

Prescott and Co. moved the chains at a 10-for-18 clip on third-down conversions, controlling the ball for 34 minutes of possession. Mississippi State’s Malcolm Johnson notched a team-high 79 receiving yards, reaching the end zone for the first time this year.

The battle’s combined 50 points slipped UNDER the ‘total’ of 54, with the contest going scoreless for its final eight minutes. Mississippi State was flagged for eight penalties (82 yards), while both sides escaped without a turnover.

[gameodds]6/247979/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Back the Gamecocks as home ‘chalk’

Bet365 opened South Carolina as a 12 ½-point home favorite, with early NCAAF odds on the Gamecocks lifting the number a ‘hook’ to 13. The ‘total’ was first posted at 52, holding steady with mixed wagers.

I am adding South Carolina in this matchup to Saturday’s college football picks, looking for Spurrier’s crew to run it up big at home.

South Carolina has notched 35 PPG in its last pair of home dates, while cashing at 9-4 ATS in its last 13 spots against foes with winning records. The Gamecocks have converted a stellar 68-of-137 third and fourth down situations, ranking in the Southeastern Conference’s top five for total yards (475.1 YPG).

Mississippi State has been lit up in its last three spots as an underdog, giving up 34.7 PPG in that trio of affairs. The Bulldogs enter this duel on a 0-3 ATS slide, including a 59-26 defeat to the LSU Tigers.

South Carolina’s Mike Davis has led the SEC with 930 rushing yards, while Connor Shaw has the loaded group’s fourth highest passer rating (162.6). Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games, while logging a 2-6 ATS mark in the team’s most recent eight conference duels.

Look for Spurrier’s crew to move the ball again here, pulling away late en route to a cashed ticket.

NCAAF Pick:  South Carolina -13 at Bet365