College Football Picks: Mississippi & Alabama to go OVER

Jeff Grant

Thursday, September 26, 2013 12:58 PM GMT

The Alabama Crimson Tide have really underperformed offensively in the early going this season, but things may turn around in a hurry against the Mississippi Rebels Saturday.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds for this Southeastern Conference matchup at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 5.

Off to a great start

Mississippi is 3-0 for the first time since 1989, as it enters this affair off a bye week—after picking up a 44-23 victory over the Texas Longhorns as 2.5-point road underdogs on Sept. 14.

The Rebels are 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS as underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points over the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 4-3 in that situation.

It hasn’t been easy

Alabama is in the driver’s seat to land one of the two spots in the 2014 BCS championship game, but it’s important to point out that the team has been out-gained by seven yards through three games.

The Crimson Tide are averaging a SEC-worst 132 rushing yards per game—a surprising number for a program that has used a dominating ground attack to win three national titles in the last four years.

Very little success in this situation 

College football handicappers may find the road underdog appealing in this affair, but the Rebels have dropped all nine of their previous games when taking on the No. 1 team in the country, while they’ve gone 1-12 versus defending national champions.

Mississippi has covered the number in six of its last eight games against Alabama, while the road team is on a 5-0 ATS run in the series.

Time to turn it on

The Crimson Tide are talented enough to turn it on at anytime, which is clearly represented in their 7-1 ATS mark in Weeks 5-9 the last two-plus seasons.

Alabama has won nine consecutive games in this series—outscoring Mississippi by a 248-118 margin over that span.

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Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total in this affair with their college football picks, as the OVER is 5-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last seven games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous contest.

College Football Pick:  Over 55.5