College Football Picks: Michigan vs. Michigan State

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 2:55 PM GMT

Michigan State has covered its last six games against Michigan, but its simply overvalued in the college football betting odds in this year’s edition of the in-state rivalry.

Important Stretch

Michigan head coach Brady Hoke has been on the hot seat since the end of last year in Ann Arbor, which is important to consider when making your college football picks, but his roster rallied behind him in picking up an 18-13 victory over Penn State as 2.5-point home favorites on Oct. 11.

 

Based on opponent winning percentage (39-26, .600), the Wolverines’ schedule is tied for the toughest in the Big Ten Conference—leading directly to a 3-4 SUATS record through seven affairs.

 

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is a forgettable 1-11 SU and 5-7 ATS as underdogs, with the UNDER going 8-4 in that situation.

 

Rolling Along

Michigan State has won 13 consecutive games against conference foes, while it returns home after picking up back-to-back road wins against the Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers.

 

The Spartans have scored at least 50 points in a game three times this season, which can’t be ignored when looking over the Week 9 college football odds, as they haven’t achieved that feat since 1978.

 

College football handicappers will find that Mark Dantonio’s squad is 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS as favorites of 10.5 to 21 points the last two-plus seasons.

 

Stopping the Run

The Wolverines rank second in the Big Ten and fifth nationally in allowing opponents to averaging just 2.73 yards per carry—a significant statistic in this matchup due to the team winning the ground battle coming away with a win in 41 of the last 44 meetings.

 

Michigan’s stop unit has been very aggressive versus capable foes, as its 50.0 tackles for loss is its highest total through the first seven games of a season in seven years.

 

Langford is the Key

Spartans running back Jeremy Langford’s 10 consecutive 100-yard rushing performances in Big Ten regular-season games is a school record, while he’s tied for 11th place in the annuals with 25 rushing touchdowns.

 

Langford gained 120 yards on 26 carries in last year’s 29-6 victory over the Wolverines as four-point home favorites, while signal-caller Connor Cook provided balance with 252 yards through the air.

 

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Wolverines as one of their College Football picks this weekend, as the Spartans are a dismal 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games in East Lansing.

 

Free College Football Pick:  Michigan Wolverines +17 at Pinnacle Sports

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