College Football Picks: Miami vs Florida State

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 12:47 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2013 12:47 PM GMT

The Florida State Seminoles have won their last three meetings with the Miami Hurricanes, as the two in-state rivals prepare to face off Saturday night. Where do we believe the best value lies...

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds page for this ACC matchup at Doak Campbell Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Underdogs

Miami is 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS through seven games of the season, but the program was sent out as a 21-point road underdog early Sunday.

The Hurricanes have won the statistical battle in six of their seven contests, but were out-gained by a sizable 201-yard margin in their 21-16 victory over the Florida Gators as three-point home underdogs on Sept. 7.

Since 1992, the program has dropped both of its games in SU fashion as a underdog of 21.5 to 31 points.

Dominant

Florida State has scored 41 or more points per game in putting together a 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS record this season—leading directly to a No. 3 ranking in the second installment of the BCS standings.

The Seminoles have captured their last three games against the Hurricanes, outscoring them by a combined 101-56 score, but the underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 installments of this rivalry.

In the ACC, the program is 10-1 SU all-time against Top 10 teams, while it has won 11 straight games overall against conference opponents.

Golden opportunity

College football handicappers need to take a long look at the road underdog in this spot, as Al Golden is 9-1-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog versus conference opponents in his coaching career, while the Hurricanes have covered 10 of their last 13 games overall when getting points.

Miami is plus-five in turnover margin this season, but Florida State is plus-eight in that all important category.

Defending its home turf

The Seminoles are allowing just 11.8 points per game at home since head coach Jimbo Fisher took over in Tallahassee in 2010.

Florida State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as favorites of 21.5 to 31 points the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 4-1 in that situation.

[gameodds]6/247958/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Seminoles for their college football picks, as they lead the nation in red zone efficiency, with redshirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston playing at a Heisman Trophy-like level.

NCAAF Pick: Florida State Seminoles -22

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