College Football Picks: LSU vs. Mississippi State

David Lawrence

Thursday, September 10, 2015 10:53 AM GMT

The LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs met last year in Baton Rouge, where LSU rarely loses a night game. Yet, Mississippi State pulled off the upset, as a quarterback named Dak Prescott introduced himself to a national audience and launched a Heisman campaign which fell short, but still impressed a lot of people around the country. Can Mississippi State win yet again versus LSU and show that it can hang with the more recognized teams in the SEC West? Can LSU gain revenge and show that it is on the way up in college football, as opposed to stagnating and falling a cut below Auburn and Alabama?

Momentum
The LSU Tigers have no momentum because they were unable to complete their game last week against McNeese State. More on that below.

Mississippi State did not look that good against Southern Mississippi, but that game was played really late in the evening and on the road. It was a terrible piece of scheduling by the school, but the team managed to win the game and move on. It at least got some experience and some reps, which LSU didn’t get to the same amount. It is something Mississippi State can build on, but the quality of the performance has to be a lot better in order to beat LSU. MSU does return Prescott this season, but he loses a number of starters from last season’s offense. Depth could be a problem for the Bulldogs, so they’ll need to make sure it doesn’t hurt them here.

So before placing our College Football picks, lets take a look at the line movement first.

 

Line Moves
The Tigers might be found as a five-point favorite in one or two places, but for the most part, they stand as a 4.5-point favorites at most College Football odds sites right now. If one perceives slight downward movement on the line, it is due to the fact that LSU did not play a full game against McNeese State last Saturday. It was cancelled due to nasty thunderstorms which remained over Baton Rouge throughout the evening and into the deep night. That inability to play a first game could leave LSU rusty and a little behind Mississippi State, which was able to play its opening game against Southern Mississippi. That’s something which has to be taken into consideration from a betting standpoint.

 

Notable Injuries
LSU offensive lineman Chidi Valentine-Okeke is out for the season. Defensive tackle Mickey Johnson is also out for the season. Safety Jalen Mills is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.

For Mississippi State, defensive back Taveze Calhoun is probable for this game with a knee injury.

 

Handicapping The Game
The Bulldogs aren’t as deep as the Tigers, but LSU might not win with depth if its starting quarterback, Brandon Harris, isn’t able to play well in this game. Quarterback has been a deficient position at LSU for years, and Harris has a lot to prove as the new starter. He didn’t get the work he needed last week due to the weather-related cancellation, so that could be huge in a road conference game in the face of a loud crowd. That’s probably enough reason to go with Mississippi State.

College Football Pick: Mississippi State +5 at Bodog