College Football Picks: Low-Scoring to Prevail in Toledo vs. Arkansas State

Joe Catalano

Friday, September 25, 2015 11:08 PM GMT

Arkansas State seems to be effective against the bottom feeders and then gets crushed by elite teams. Toledo appears to be legitimate. See who we like in this matchup as our college football pick.

Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 26th at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. This game can be seen on ESPN 3. According to 5Dimes, Toledo is a 7.5 point betting favorite and the total is listed at 58.5.

 

An Initial Impression
My initial thought is that the Arkansas State blowout win can't be taken seriously and Toledo's defense will hold the score down in a game with a high total. 7.5 points seems a questionable as a spread and the total appears on the college football odds.

Holding The Score Down

Simply put, Toledo will get the job done, but they're a weak offensive team.They defeated Iowa State in double overtime in their last game, 30-23. In this game, quarterback Phillip Ely managed just 138 yards passing on 11 for 28 with 1 TD and 1 INT.

He's a senior with senior smarts, but simply not a talented quarterback. He's a serviceable QB that will enable playmakers to make plays and the Toledo defense to take over as they did against Arkansas. If not for the double overtime, the score of this game would've been low. I don't see anything changing as Arkansas State hasn't met the likes of a defense such as Toledo's.

 

Corey Jones
It's difficult to believe, but not one player besides Corey Jones has more than 3 receptions on the Toledo Rockets. Obviously, when Ely does decide to air it out, Jones is his man and Jones has done a fantastic job, being the player that opposing defenses focus in on.

This is a guy that caught for 851 yards last season, therefore we know that he can play. Thus far this season, he's caught 12 ball for 115 yards and 1 TD. That's just where Toledo wants him to be at as they've only played 2 games and he's been very consistent. I look for him to take advantage of the Red Wolves defense. The Red Wolves want to turn this into a shootout, but that won't happen.

Arkansas State did play against a formidable opponent in the USC Trojans and had their heads handed to them, 55-6. They also played Missouri and came up short, 27-20. You can't say that they haven't played contenders, but losing isn't the answer and a more desirable schedule would be beneficial.

 

Don't Be Fooled
The Red Wolves are coming off of a 70-7 victory over Missouri State, therefore the statistics get thrown out. One player that the Rockets will need to look out for is wideout, J.D. McKissic.

McKissic had a 1000 yard season in his freshman year and as a senior, has gotten off to a nice consistent start with back to back 80 yard effort. Arkansas State has a more polished offense with great depth.I'm not questioning their offensive competence as they proved that they can compete with teams like Missouri. I just question the total in this game against a team that will bleed the clock down.Let's not double think this, take the Under as our college football pick.

College Football Pick: Under 58.5 at 5Dimes

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