College Football Picks: Lock Vanderbilt +17.5 vs. Tennessee

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 26, 2015 7:45 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 26, 2015 7:45 PM UTC

We look at the season-ending rivalry game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Tennessee Volunteers to offer our Big Dog of the Week college football pick.

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee (-17-) 4:00 ET SEC TV
The Vanderbilt Commodores travel from Nashville to Knoxville for this annual, season-ending rivalry game.  Festivities begin at 4:00 ET as televised by SEC TV.  Regardless of the status of these two teams at season end, this has been a hard fought rivalry.  In the last 8 seasons, Vandy has not lost this game by more than 15 points and has actually upset the Vols in 2 of the 3 previous seasons.  Last year’s loss to Tennessee was (24-17), a game in which the Coms outgained the Vols 272-262.  This is a great example of a rivalry underdog, who, as losing team, will be playing THIS game as THEIR Bowl game of the year.  It is from situation such as this, that shocking rivalry week upsets are born.

Authoring consecutive winning seasons (after a trio of 5-7 SU campaigns), 3rd year Tennessee HC Jones has lifted his team to eligibility for a Bowl in consecutive seasons.  They had a huge win last week at Missouri and have much less to prove than underdog Vandy in this contest.  Tennessee is indeed solid on both sides of the ball with an average margin of victory of 13 PPG, while outgaining foes 413-367.  But, that hardly makes them a margin team in this situation. 

It is obvious to all that this Vandy offense is struggling at just 14 PPG.  But, their 18 point defensive allowance as they enter this game qualifies them as one of our Super Ds.  In fact, that 18 PPG allowance is little more than today’s impost!  Not surprisingly, this big rivalry dog has covered 3 straight in the series and enters with a record of 10-5 ATS as road underdog.  That includes ATS wins this season in an 11 point loss at Mississippi and a 2 point loss at Florida in which they were taking a similar number of (+19).   Little doubt that this is the Bowl game for Vandy, who will give a 100% effort on both sides of the ball the entire game. 

In college football rivalry weekend, where underdogs annually cover the pointspread more than not, this is an outstanding opportunity for a Big Dog with far greater motivation and the superior defense to come in under this inflated number.  I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me in my college football pick with the Vanderbilt Commodores as the Big Dog Play of the Week.

College Football Picks: Vanderbilt +17.5 at 5Dimes

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