Week 13 Line Movers: Wolfpack Howling Versus North Carolina

Friday, November 23, 2018 12:23 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 23, 2018 12:23 PM UTC

If the North Carolina Tar Heels had any value for your college football picks, it all moved to the North Carolina State Wolfpack for Saturday’s game in Chapel Hill.

<p style="text-align:right;"><strong><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record through Week 12: 14-15 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 1-2 Totals</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/north-carolina-state-wolfpack-vs-north-carolina-tar-heels-3449261/odds/" title="live odds for this game">NC State (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) at North Carolina (2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Saturday, 12:20 p.m. ET (ACCNE)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Free NCAAF Pick: Wolfpack ATS</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" title="top rated sportsbook">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3449261, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1096,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>We don’t always cash in these premium line movers for your <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/">college football picks</a> – it just seems that way. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/week-12-college-football-picks-northwestern-flips-against-gophers/87518/">It happened again</a> last week; we recommended the Northwestern Wildcats at +1.5 after they’d opened as 3-point road faves against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and they ended up winning 24-14 at the full +3. It is what it is.<br /><br />This week’s very special pick takes us to Chapel Hill, where the North Carolina Tar Heels will renew their tobacco-stained rivalry this Saturday with the North Carolina State Wolfpack. NC State opened as 11-point favorites, but at press time, they’re available at –7 on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/">college football odds board</a>, even though our consensus reports show 66-percent support for the Pack. Curious.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Head Over Heels</strong></h2><p>The advanced stats are telling us to jump all over NC State. Here’s the skinny:</p><p style="text-align:center;"><em>ESPN Football Power Index Projection:</em> NCSU 77.3 percent</p><p style="text-align:center;"><em>Equivalent Moneyline (using <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/">SBR Odds Converter</a>):</em> NCSU –340</p><p style="text-align:center;"><em>Equivalent Point Spread (via Wizard of Odds):</em> NCSU –10.5</p><p>So here we are again with the NCAAF lines moving off the projections by several points. There was at least some rationale in snapping up the Tar Heels as 11-point home dogs. And the Wolfpack are scuffling of late, going 2-3 SU and ATS over their last five games, including upset losses to Syracuse (+2 at home) and Wake Forest (+19.5 away). But that all changes now that NC State have landed on the magic number 7.</p><p dir="ltr" lang="en">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Now, let's compare Larry Fedora, who's been at &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNC?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#UNC&lt;/a&gt; since 2012, and Dave Doeren, who's been at &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NCSU?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NCSU&lt;/a&gt; since 2013:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fedora (87 games, 45-42 record, 1-3 in bowl games)&lt;br /&gt;Doeren (74 games, 41-33 record, 3-1 in bowl games)&lt;/p&gt;— Jacob Turner (@JacobTurnerTHI) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/JacobTurnerTHI/status/1065670760570732545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;November 22, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2 dir="ltr" lang="en">H<strong>ats Off</strong></h2><p>Looking at the season as a whole, the Tar Heels aren’t anywhere near the same force as their Carolinian rivals. UNC check in at No. 86 on the F/+ Combined Ratings at Football Outsiders; that’s several layers beneath the Wolfpack at No. 37 overall. The Heels may have thumped Western Carolina 49-26 last week to snap their six-game losing streak, but they couldn’t cover the 30.5-point spread against the visiting Catamounts, who represent the Southern Conference in the FCS.</p><p>We’re not going to recommend a large bet in this situation, though. It’s the final game of the season for North Carolina, who will not come close to sniffing a bowl invitation this year. The Tar Heels usually do well at Kenan Stadium; last year, ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder clocked them at 0.23 Points Above Expectation playing at home. And the UNC players might give Saturday’s game a little extra effort in support of head coach Larry Fedora, whose job may or may not be in jeopardy at the moment. It’s still a good spot for NC State, though, so let’s run with the Pack, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.</p>
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