Move to Magic Number Makes Iowa the Right Pick Over Purdue

Thursday, November 1, 2018 8:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018 8:39 PM UTC

The Iowa Hawkeyes opened as slim road dogs for Saturday's game against the Purdue Boilermakers. The NCAAF odds have moved towards Purdue since then. It’s harvest time.

<p style="text-align:right;"><strong><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record through Week 9:<br />11-11 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-2 Totals</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="" title="Game Odds">No. 19 Iowa at Purdue</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Free NCAAF Pick: Hawkeyes ATS</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448277, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,180,1275,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>There are some very interesting line moves on the Week 10 <a href="" title="Live NCAAF Odds">college football odds board</a>. The move we’re focused on today isn’t the biggest one on the board, but it’s definitely worth a closer look – because the odds seem to be heading in the wrong direction. It’s Saturday’s Big Ten battle between the No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2 SU and ATS) and the Purdue Boilermakers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS). Iowa opened as 1.5-point road dogs; at press time, they’re down to +2.5, with several books offering +3 if you’re willing to pay a premium on the juice.<br /><br />We’ll get to that juice in a moment. The important thing here is that Purdue is favored in a game that the computers say Iowa should win. FiveThirtyEight project the Hawkeyes’ chances at 54 percent, which translates to a vig-free moneyline of Iowa -117 using the transcendental <a href="">SBR Odds Converter</a>. Cross-reference that result with the college football charts at Wizard of Odds, and you get Iowa -1.5 as an equivalent point spread. Curious.</p><p> </p><h2>Hi in the Middle, Burned at Both Ends</h2><p>The love for Purdue is understandable, if somewhat misguided. Two weeks ago, they put the boots to the then-No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, 49-20 as 12-point home dogs. Very nice. But on the season, the Boilers are No. 23 on the F/+ Combined Ratings at Football Outsiders. The Hawkeyes are No. 16.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Field judge either ready to call a timeout or delay of game right before the killer interception. &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Hawkeyes&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Hawkeye Headquarters (@HawkeyeHQ) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;October 28, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>Iowa’s most recent encounter with a ranked team didn’t go quite as well as Purdue’s. They fell 30-24 to the Penn State Nittany Lions, who were No. 17 in the polls at the time. But Iowa came <em>this</em> close to covering as 5.5-point road dogs. They even had the ball at the Penn State 2-yard line in the dying minutes before Nick Scott rudely interrupted Iowa’s progress with the game-saving interception you can sort of see above.</p><p> </p><h2>What Have You Done for Me Lately?</h2><p>This looks like one of those situations where recency bias has reared its ugly head. Purdue’s win over Ohio State is still fresh in everyone’s mind – maybe even fresher than last week’s 23-13 loss to the Michigan State Spartans (+2.5 at home). Iowa hasn’t faced the Buckeyes yet, and won’t unless they somehow end up meeting in the Big Ten title game; Penn State was their highest-profile opponent thus far.<br /><br />You have to have both a short and a long memory when you make your <a href="" title="Free NCAAF Picks">college football picks</a>. It also helps to shop around. Given the option between Iowa +2.5 (+100) and Iowa +3 (-125), you should definitely forgo that half-point and take the +2.5 with the price discount on juice. But at press time, The Greek has Iowa at +3 with the standard –110 vigorish, so if that or something better is available when you read this, hop to it, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.</p>
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