College Football Picks: Iowa State vs. Baylor

Joe Freda

Friday, October 18, 2013 2:58 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 18, 2013 2:58 PM GMT

Art Briles’ squad returns home for Saturday’s NCAAF betting, listed as heavy ‘chalk’ against the Iowa State Cyclones. 

The Baylor Bears held on for last week’s 35-25 road win over the Kansas State Wildcats, staying unbeaten for the season. 

Bears survive in Manhattan 

Baylor entered last Saturday’s third quarter with a 25-21 deficit, coming up with a pair of unanswered touchdowns in the final period. Bears quarterback Bryce Petty found wide out Tevin Reese for a 54-yard touchdown as part of the late surge, adding to two prior scoring strikes. 

Petty’s offense controlled the ball for a sparse 21 minutes of possession, while the junior notched over 300 passing yards for a fifth straight game. Baylor came away logging 15 first downs, with running backs Glasco Martin and Lache Seastrunk combining for 28 carries (4.6 YPR). 

The Bears’ defense surrendered 327 rushing yards in their long day, allowing K-State to move the chains at a 7-for-15 clip on third-down conversions. Baylor’s Ahmad Dixon snagged his first interception of the season, while the battle’s 60 points dipped UNDER the college football odds ‘total’ of 73. 

Cyclones cash as road dogs

Iowa State moved to 3-0 ATS in its latest trio of duels, collecting in last Saturday’s 42-35 defeat as a 14-point road dog against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Cyclones traded early touchdowns to tie the matchup at halftime, 21-21, while thrashed by Texas Tech’s 666 total yards and 36 first downs. 

Cyclones quarterback Sam Richardson was held to a season-low 168 passing yards, completing a meager 15-of-38 attempts. Iowa State’s Aaron Wimberly reached the end zone for one of his side’s three rushing scores, with all coming from inside the five-yard line. 

The contest’s combined 77 points flew above the ‘total’ of 58, lifting the OVER to a 4-0 mark in the Cyclones’ last month of action. Iowa State’s Kirby Van Der Kamp logged a long day of 11 punts (47.5 YPP), while mate Jarvis West returned a kickoff 95 yards for paydirt. 


Back the Cyclones as big dogs 

Baylor opened as a 30 ½-point home favorite on Bet365’s NCAAF odds board, with the ‘total’ first posted at 75 ½. Early wagers on the Bears and OVER lifted the numbers north to 34 and 76 ½. 

I am going against the early ‘steam,’ backing Iowa State as part of this week’s sports picks. 

Iowa State has seen its highest octane of the year over the team’s last three contests, while going an undervalued 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road spots. The Cyclones should answer back enough times here to get the money, surging for a late ‘back door’ score or two, if needed. 

Baylor was slowed down last week thanks to Bill Snyder’s Wildcats managing the clock, while my followers cashed with K-State as part of my NCAAF Value Picks. The Bears have been held to 26.7 PPG in their last three meetings with Iowa State, with the Cyclones collecting at 2-1 ATS. 

Iowa State has not dropped an affair this season by more than eight points, while its punting unit ranks in the Big 12 Conference’s top three squads for net yards (41 YPP). Look for the Cyclones to give Baylor enough long drives that eat up time, while getting the money for a fourth straight cashed NCAAF picks ticket ATS. 

College Football Pick:  Iowa State Cyclones +34 at Bet365
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