College Football Picks: Home Underdog Value Found on Purdue +4 vs. Illinois

Steven Suarez

Friday, November 6, 2015 11:25 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 6, 2015 11:25 PM UTC

Though the Fighting Illini have lost three in a row and will be the road team in this matchup, they're still favored over Purdue on the college football odds board.

Odds Overview
At time of writing, we could find Illinois favored by four points in the college football odds, even though they haven't ended up on the winning side for quite some time now.

A relatively low total of 52.5 can be found on the board for now, with plenty of time left for the lines to continue to shift until kickoff. Keep dialed in to in order to get the best possible number you can.


Purdue Boilermakers
It was a long time coming, but the Boilermakers finally ended their lengthy losing streak by beating Nebraska 55-45 at home last week. Coming in, Purdue had dropped five consecutive games, with three of thoses losses coming in blowout fashion. 

Everything was working, at least offensively, for the Boilermakers this past week though, as they racked up a ton of points against that shaky Cornhuskers defense. QB David Blough was outstanding, compiling 274 passing yards, 82 rushing yards, and five total touchdowns in the winning effort. Markell Jones ran 23 times for 92 yards and two scores, while DeAngelo Yancey again led Purdue in receiving; he ended up with five catches for 111 yards and two trips to the end zone, via the arm of Blough.

Will that much-needed win act as a spark for the Boilermakers as the season winds down? Just 2-6 overall and 1-3 in conference play, there's practically no chance Purdue can make a bowl, but they'll keep trying to build for the future, and it at least looks as if they've got a competent quarterback to rely on in Blough. He's still got a ways to go, but he's shown he can lead this offense.


Illinois Fighting Illini
Following a very encouraging 4-1 start, the Fighting Illini have hit a wall. They've lost three consecutive games, and things reached an ultimate lowpoint last week in a 39-0 road loss to Penn State. Sure, the Nittany Lions have been strong defensively this season, but it was embarassing to see Illinois fail to register even a single point.

Diving deeper, we see Wes Lunt was completely nullified in the rout. He completed only 16-of-37 passes for 129 yards and was picked off once. The running game was even worse for Illinois, with the backfield totaling an awful 37 yards on 27 attempts. Yes, the Fighting Illini have had much better days this season, but they're starting to seem longer and longer ago.

The encouraging sign for fans of Illinois? They've been priced as favorites for this trip to take on Purdue, and we have seen this team play good football in 2015. Ahead of the weekend, the Fighting Illini are averaging 26.0 points per game (86th in the nation) while surrendering 22.6 points per game (43rd) on average, and you have to think they'll be as motivated as they've been in quite some time to finally get back on track with a W.


Betting Analysis
Obviously, oddsmakers have very little faith in Purdue, despite what they were able to accomplish last week. Indeed, it's been a tough season, and Illinois did show some good things earlier on in 2015.

However, we do see the Boilermakers showing up with another determined effort this weekend, and we believe there to be value on the home team in this situation.

Blough has proven he can make some big plays in this offense, and it's not like Illinois has been lights out defensively over the last few weeks. We expect Purdue to score their fair share of points and for them to be well worth backing with your college football picks

College Football Picks: Purdue Boilermakers +4 at Bovada

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