College Football Picks: Hawaii +40 is a Line Even Ohio St. Wont Cover in Week 2

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 10, 2015 2:40 PM GMT

Our first lone ranger contrary play of the week came through like a champ when we faded the world with Washington (+) over public darling, Boise St. Lets review this week's pick.

Hawaii vs. Ohio St. (-40) 3:30 ET BIG 10 TV
Each week in this space, I isolate the CFB lone ranger contrary play of the week. It is a blend of statistical, situational and technical analysis that will result in an outstanding opportunity for you to cash a winning ticket.

Our first lone ranger contrary play of the week came through like a champ when we faded the world with Washington (+) over public darling, Boise St. The Alpo eaters devoured nearly the whole bowl, succumbing late in the 4th quarter.  Though I don’t believe Hawaii will make a game of it, there is plenty of room to come inside this number that became inflated following the Ohio St. Monday night result. But before we can talk about that story, let’s revisit Hawaii’s Friday night results.

The truth is the Rainbow Warriors may have gotten a bit fortunate in their 28-20 home victory over a phony favorite, the Colorado Buffalo.  You see, the Buffs outrushed Hawaii 215-101, one of only 4 of 15 double rushers who did not bring home the ATS bacon in Week 1. On the bright side of the ledger, USC transfer, QB Wittek, led a passing attack that went 19 for 38 for over 2 bucks. Nonetheless, the 303 total yards put up by Hawaii is about 150 less than the Buffs usually allow. That is hardly an endorsement for a team who now must travel some 4,500 miles east for a 9:30 a.m.body time start against the defending champs. As a result, this play is not so much ON Hawaii, whose 3 new coordinators are trying desperately to save the job of HC Chow, who in his 4th season is just 9-29 SU. Rather, this is a contrary stance against the defending champs.

After bolting to a 14-0 1st quarter lead, Ohio St. began to read their press clippings. The committed a pair of 2nd quarter TOs which allowed the Hokies to go to the locker room with a 17-14 lead.  So much for only home loss revenge!  At the half, ESPN cameras flashed to VA Tech QB, Brewer, who after getting sandwiched by a pair of Ohio St. defenders late in the first half was asked by his teammates “are you OK?”  It was the certain KOD (kiss of death) when Brewer arrogantly replied, “it will take a lot more than that to knock me out of this game!”  And, that is exactly what happened, when early in the 3rd quarter, Brewer was slammed to the ground by the Ohio St. pass rush, separating his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the process.  From there on, it was all Buckeyes who scored 28 unanswered before the Hokies fired a meaningless backdoor shot.  But, the combination of Ohio St. triplets, Jones, Miller and Elliott (they barely used projected starter, JT Bartlett), were all the viewers needed to see to make their mind up about this contest. One look at the stats which saw Ohio St. a member of the 200 club and double rushers, confirmed their belief. Ergo, this 40-point impost, a full TD higher than it would have been last week (despite Hawaii covering by 16 points).  

This one’s tough to bet (remember how much trouble you had pulling the trigger on Washington last week?), but it’s the right side considering the value in the line and that HC Meyer is just 10-10 ATS as Columbus chalk of late. Join the Lone Ranger and me for this Week 2 contrary play. 

College Football Pick: Hawaii +40