College Football Picks: Great Betting Value Found on Maryland +17 vs. Iowa

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 29, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

Maryland visits Iowa in a game that provides our AFP college football pick of the week. Go inside to inside to find out why it puts the college football odds in our favor.

Maryland vs. Iowa (-17), Saturday, October 31, 3:30 ET ABC
This is one of our AFP plays that has gone 16-4 ATS the last 2 weeks.  Other plays on the card this week that qualify under the following parameters, include Miami, OH, Auburn, Georgia, Kansas, Oregon St., ODU, UTEP, Miami, Tulane and Minnesota.  Here are the parameters to qualify as an AFP game.  Our teams’ AFP differential (their net performance against the point spread for the season to date) must be (-20) or less.  They must be facing a foe whose net AFP differential for the season is (+20) or more.  The sum of these two numbers must be 50 or more.  When this net AFP differential produces line value that is 7 or more points from the projected opening number in Week 1, you have an AFP play with great value!  Remember, these are 16-4 ATS over the last 2 weeks.  Many of these are BUDs (big ugly dogs) just like this Maryland selection.  

Iowa enters as an undefeated team at 7-0 SU with a 5-2 ATS record and (+78) net AFP differential.  They are a qualified Super D, allowing just 15 PPG, 74/2.5 overland and 294/4.4 total.  But under veteran HC Ferentz, the Hawkeyes have rarely been a margin team.  Witness their mark of 2-10 ATS as conference favorite of 14 or more points. 

Maryland enters playing their 2nd game under interim HC Locksley who got the job when former HC Edsall was fired after the (49-28) loss to Ohio St.  Locksley, a former unsuccessful mentor at New Mexico, was openly realistic at his press conference stating he has 0 expectations about retaining this job.  That all may change after his Terps joined the 200 Club with a balanced offensive explosion of 470 yards vs. Penn St., resulting in an over 100 yard edge against the Nittany Lions in a narrow 31-30 Maryland loss.  Numerous times, we have seen teams respond positively to a coach being fired.  This would appear to be just such the case. 

In the last 2 weeks, we have won the AFP college football pick of the week with Michigan St. over Michigan (2 weeks ago) and last week with Cincinnati minus the points against UConn.  The college football odds are again in our favor this week as a rejuvenated Maryland team, who is taking 10 points more than the opening line, as a result of a (-109) net AFP differential, comes romping under the number against an Iowa team who is fat from their 7-0 SU start.

College Football Picks: Maryland +17 at Bookmaker

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