College Football Picks: Grab Road Favorite LA Monroe -1 Over Idaho

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 22, 2015 4:08 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 4:08 PM UTC

We have a Sun Belt Conference game this Saturday at 5:00 pm ET, LA Monroe will visit an Idaho team, who is 2-4 SU for the season and 1-2 SU in Sun Belt play. Who will be our college football pick?

LA Monroe vs. Idaho 5:00PM ET
The LA Monroe Warhawks travel to Moscow, Idaho to faceoff in an unusually named “Sun Belt Conference” game this Saturday at 5:00 pm ET.  As with all Idaho home games, it is played in their Kibbie Dome home, a facility that is used for the majority of Idaho sporting events. It features a Warhawk team who is 1-4 SU for the season, including 0-3 SU ATS in Sun Belt play against an Idaho team, who is 2-4 SU for the season and 1-2 SU in Sun Belt play. 

Each week of the CFB season, I isolate a home underdog who is due for a letdown based on the previous week’s performance. This happens when our current home dog (the inferior team in the eyes of the linemaker) has just won a contest outright on the road as an underdog of 7 or more points. The shocking upset causes a letdown for this team, as the victory is akin to a “blind hog finding an acorn.”  Such was the case with the Vandals’ victory last week at Troy. As 13 point underdog on the opening line, Idaho prevailed by a score of 19-16 in a surprisingly, low-scoring game. In that contest, Idaho was outrushed and out-passed but got the (19-16) victory because of a (+4) net TO margin. As expected, the victory was unearned.  

The Idaho program continues to struggle under 3rd year HC Petrino. Even with this year’s 2-4 SU record, the Vandals are just 4-25 SU the previous 3 years and 7-46 SU (4+Y). This is not a team who is used to victory. As Petrino continues to build through the JUCO ranks, the Vandals remain one of the worst defensive teams on the CFB landscape. For the season, they allow 42 PPG, 289/6.6 overland and 227/9.3 through the airways. Those stats are horrible!  Their lone level of success is behind QB Linehan, who leads a passing game averaging 253 PYPG. This program is simply not built for success, as they are 0-24 SU following a victory.     

The 1-4 SU mark of LA Monroe with 4 consecutive victories makes it hard to back this team on the road at first glance! But, they do have the confidence of defeating Idaho last year (38-31), when they gained 534 yards. In addition, LA Monroe has played a highly-competitive schedule including games against Georgia, Alabama and Tulsa on the road, along with Sun Belt Conference games against the 2 best teams in the league (GA Southern and App St.). Today, they step way down in class at a value price, knowing that a victory here and a manageable slate for the remainder of the season could allow them to get their goal of 6 victories. 

With the college football odds in our favor we make this blind hog of the week knowing the history of a Monroe team, who is a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road following consecutive games in which they have failed to win either outright or against the spread.  At this value price in a win situation, I invite you to join me for my college football pick on LA Monroe fading an Idaho team as our blind hog of the week.  

College Football Pick: LA Monroe -1 at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2831317, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here