College Football Picks: Grab Miami (OH) at Value Price of +16.5 vs. Ohio

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 8, 2015 6:35 PM GMT

We look at the MAC East rivalry clash between Miami (OH) and Ohio for our Upside-Down Stat Game of the Week college football pick.

Miami (OH) vs. Ohio (-16), Saturday, October 10, 2:00 PM ET
Miami (OH) visits Ohio University for a 2:00 ET kickoff in this MAC East rivalry showdown.  Long suffering Miami (OH) was 2-22 SU the previous 2 years.  But, they are slowly beginning a return to respectability under 2nd year HC Martin.  For the Ohio U Bobcats, this experienced team, under 11th year HC Solich has a real chance to make some noise in the MAC East.  For the reasons below, this is my college football pick as the Upside-Down Stat Game of the Week.  Best of all, we get it at a value price, putting the college football odds in our favor.  

Last week, in an Upside-Down Stat Game of the Week, we used Arizona State plus the points in their outright upset of UCLA (38-23) as 14 point pup.  They outgained the Bruins 465-342, outrushing them 192-62.  AZ State was off a misleading loss the week before to USC, in which they outgained the Trojans but lost 42-14.  Meanwhile, UCLA was off a phony victory vs. Arizona, a game much closer in the stats, than was the 56-35 final.  We use the same line of thinking, translating it to a MAC game in the same price range. 

For the season, Miami (OH) enters on a 4-game losing streak with a (-22) net AFP.  A veteran Ohio team is 4-1 SU ATS with a (+37) net AFP.  That net AFP differential of (-59) has zoomed this line nearly 10 points from where it would have been opening week.  That divergence is enhanced by last week’s results.  Last week, the Red Hawks went to Kent St., where they lost 20-14, but covered as a double digit dog.  They got the spread win, despite overcoming a (-3) net TO margin because they outgained Kent 416-350.  Earlier in the day, Ohio was emerging with a 14-12 road victory at Akron (but failed to cover the 3 point impost).  Looking inside the box score, we find that Akron actually outgained Ohio (in a game with a 0 net TO margin) with a yardage edge of 319-227. 

It all adds up to an inflated line in this game and plenty of value on a Miami (OH) team for whom Ohio will have little respect.  They beat the Red Hawks (41-16) on this field, two years ago.  Regarding series history, last year’s game, a 24-21 Ohio win, was just as close as the final score with an Ohio yardage edge of 353-317.  In conclusion, look for the Red Hawks to compete, as Ohio looks forward to their home revenge game next week against a W. Michigan team who beat Ohio (42-21) in Kalamazoo last year.

College Football Pick: Miami (OH) +16.5 at Heritage

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