College Football Picks: Grab Baylor -37 to Crush Iowa State

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 4:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 4:52 PM UTC

The Baylor Bears average 64 points per game, Iowa State is a 37 point road underdog, If anyone can cover a huge spread is Baylor, can they be our college football pick for this weekend?

Iowa State vs. Baylor (-37) 12:00PM ET ESPN
We kick off your CFB Saturday with this noon ET start. 2-4 SU Iowa State, who is 1-2 SU in the Big 12, visits the Baylor Bears, who are 3-0 SU ATS in the Big 12 and looking to retain their Top 4 status with yet another blowout win. Last year at Iowa State, Baylor won this matchup (49-28). It should have been much worse, as the yardage was 601-339. When they played on this field two years ago, Baylor won (71-7). That’s the type of pinball numbers this Baylor team is recording every weekend.  Were it not for the Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State would be bringing up the bottom of the Big 12. We used Baylor in this very spot last week as our crusher of the week. They delivered with a 62-38 victory on this field vs. WVU. Today’s margin vs. an Iowa State team who is mired in the basement of the Big12 should be far greater.

In the last 2 weeks, Iowa State has faced the high-powered offenses of Texas Tech and TCU. They allowed a combined 111 points and 1,397 yards. Now playing for a 3rd straight week against a video game type offense, there will be a negative mindset for the defensive players. They know the numbers that Baylor has put up, understand the defensive deficiencies that have been exposed the last 2 weeks and will expect to give up 60 or more points.

Sixty or more points is exactly what the Baylor Bears will be scoring again this week. Since an opening week win vs. SMU, when they put up “only 56,” Baylor has scored 62 or more points in 5 consecutive games. For the season, this No. 1 offense in the land is averaging 64 PPG on 720 YPG and 8.9 YP play. The best part is their beautiful offensive balance which sees them running for 349/7.1 and passing for 371/11.7. There are 2 great things about backing Baylor as a big favorite. First, is their experience from last year. Being snubbed from making the Final 4 has left this team hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder. Secondly is their history in this price range under 8th year HC Briles, whose Bears are 10-2 ATS when laying 30 or more points. With the numbers recited above, expect Baylor to not only double-rush Iowa St. but to also easily run and pass for 200 yards, making them a qualifier for both the 200 Club as well as the double-rusher.

I invite you to join me this Saturday, when we once again put the college football odds in our favor with my college football pick of Baylor minus the points as our crusher of the week. This pointspread victory will boost the record of the college crusher to 6-1 ATS.

College Football Pick: Baylor -37 at Heritage

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