College Football Picks: Gold Rush Your Way to 75% ATS Winners

Joe Gavazzi

Sunday, December 6, 2015 4:06 PM GMT

Before placing your College Football picks for the 2015-16 season, note that teams who outrush their opponents by a large margin are proven to cover the spread at a very high rate.

In recent articles, which I authored in August 2015 for this website, I proved the success of analyzing the running game in the NFL.  As sure as day follows night, there is similar thinking that produces huge profit in the world of College Football handicapping, season after season.  CFB scoring has ballooned to over 56 PPG with the aerial attack accounting for much of the high-scoring success.  We saw in an earlier CFB article this week entitled “Projecting the 2015 CFB 200 Offensive Club Members” how important it was to feature a balanced offense in achieving CFB pointspread success.  But that does not mean that we cannot use a tried and true running formula to isolate running game winners as well.  This comes in a form of statistical analysis in which we isolate which of the opposing teams dominates at the point of attack.  The record of success will follow with the chart below.

In the ensuing chart, I will show you which 2014 CFB teams dominated their opponents last season overland by outrushing them for more than 100 YPG.  This list is essential to your September handicapping because along with the other columns in the list, it will point out which teams are likely to dominate overland in the early going.  It is proof once again that you can’t know where you are going, unless you know where you have been.

TEAM

CON

YEARS

2014

SU

2014

ATS

OFF

RY

OFF

TY

DEF

RY

DEF

TY

OFF

RTN

QB

RTN

OL

RTN

Air Force

1

10-3

7-5

273

419

137

396

6

N

2

Alabama

4+

12-2

6-7

206

483

102

328

3

N

2

Arkansas

1

7-6

9-3

218

406

114

323

9

Y

4

Army

1

4-8

4-6

296

358

194

431

5

N

3

Boston College

1

7-6

7-5

255

384

94

324

3

N

0

Georgia Southern

4+

9-3

7-4

383

488

154

388

5

Y

1

Georgia Tech

4+

11-3

10-3

342

476

167

411

6

Y

4

Marshall

1

13-1

8-5

272

559

160

357

6

N

3

Michigan St.

1

11-2

8-4

235

501

89

316

7

Y

4

Navy

2

8-5

6-6

338

419

199

404

5

Y

2

Ohio St.

3

14-1

10-5

265

512

141

342

8

Y

4

Oklahoma

1

8-5

5-8

261

465

107

383

6

Y

2

Toledo

1

9-4

5-7

260

494

116

409

5

Y

0

Wisconsin

3

11-3

6-7

320

469

126

294

5

Y

2

 

 

From the 134-52 SU, 98-75 ATS, you can see we are on the right track.  A further indicator for successful College Football picks is divulged in the following subset:

*45-32 ATS – if our running team outgains their foes by 100 or more total yards.

But as with our 200 Club members, this list can only partially describe what happens in the real world.  Consider the results from the last 4 years in this category. 

The record of any team who double rushes their opponent in a contest: 726-237 ATS (75%) 

Now, it becomes our job each week by matching each team’s offense with the opponent’s defense to determine when our team will double rush their opponent.  In a companion article to this, I will give you a list of teams who were outrushed by 100+ YPG in 2014.  Together with this list, it will provide a solid head start for your Week 1 College Football picks.  By the time October rolls around, there will be enough current season data (assuming an equal strength of schedule) to allow you to handicap the games based on the merits of the YTD data.  Stay tuned to this site as we isolate trends to beat the College Football odds, sharing the best bet on the card each week in this category.