Last Call: Bet 'Over' As Boise Hosts USU For Mountain Division Title

boise utah state

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 21, 2018 7:08 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 21, 2018 7:08 PM UTC

Either the Utah State Aggies or the Boise State Broncos will go on to the Mountain West title game with a victory, but we’re looking at the total for Saturday’s college football picks.

Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record through Week 12: 14-15 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 1-2 Totals

No. 23 Utah St. (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) at No. 25 Boise St. (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)Free NCAAF Pick: OverBest Line Offered: Heritage

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There are plenty of good reasons to stay up on a Saturday night. Here’s one that won’t get you into too much trouble: the late game between the No. 23 Utah State Aggies and the No. 25 Boise State Broncos. It’s a mid-major battle, sure, but it’s an important one – the winner will advance to the Mountain West title game. And they’ll be playing on the blue turf in Boise. That’s never not fun.

More importantly, they’ll be scoring lots of touchdowns. In theory. There’s a jolly total of 67.5 on the college football odds board as we go to press, and the early consensus is 100 percent on the OVER. We’re going to follow the sharps in this one and grab that price before it goes up, as we expect it will once the betting public (such as it is for an MWC game) jumps in.

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TOUCHDOWN AGGIES!!

Darwin Thompson scores. Eberle with the extra point.

AGGIES TAKE THE LEAD!
USU - 31
MSU -30#MeetTheChallenge | #AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/TaJzJTNoY5

— USU Football (@USUFootball) September 1, 2018
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The Darwin Awards

We came very close to recommending the Aggies for your Week 13 college football picks, but we didn’t get to them in time. Utah State opened as 3-point road dogs before slipping to +2.5 in early betting. Without that half-point, forget about it. FiveThirtyEight like the Broncos to win 56 percent of the time; that’s BSU –127 using the champagne-basted SBR Odds Converter, and BSU –2 when you compare that result to the charts at Wizard of Odds.

So let’s move on to that total. The Aggies (OVER 9-2) have obviously done their part this year. They have the No. 8 offense in the nation according to the FEI numbers at Football Outsiders, paired with the No. 26-ranked defense. In terms of raw scoring, USU are second overall at 49.3 points per game. QB Jordan Love (25 TDs, four INTs) is having one hell of a sophomore season. RB Darwin Thompson (7.4 yards per carry) has been even better. And kicker Dominik Eberle (20-for-25 on figgies, 65-for-65 on PATs) hasn’t missed much of anything this year.

Boise State (UNDER 6-5) aren’t as explosive as they were when Chris Petersen was their head coach, but they do have the right imbalance for our purposes, ranking No. 25 on offense and No. 41 on defense according to FEI. And they do score 37.4 points per game, which is No. 19 overall. As for the weather, it should be a chilly night in Boise with temperatures dipping near the freezing point at kick-off, but that will be under mostly clear skies, so if anything, that gives the OVER an extra dose of contrarian betting value. Book it, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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