College Football Picks: Go 'Under' 57.5 & Give the Points In Iowa's Home Finale vs. Purdue

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015 11:27 PM UTC

The Purdue football team is having another losing season and won't play in a bowl game, but the Boilermakers can make their year by upsetting No. 6 Iowa on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are -20.5 on Pinnacle's college football odds with a total of 57.5.

Boilers Can Only Play Spoiler
Purdue (2-8, 1-5) played pretty well last week at ranked Northwestern, falling just 21-14. Boilers QB David Blough completed 26 of 45 passes for 287 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The freshman hit Domonique Young for a 68-yard score on Purdue's first play from scrimmage. Young, who had only 60 yards all season entering the game, finished with a career-high 107 on five catches. Markell Jones carried 13 times for 58 yards. It was Blough's third TD pass of at least 60 yards this season. He is the only Big Ten quarterback with multiple TD passes of 60+ yards. This will be Blough's eighth start in a row, the most consecutive starts by a Purdue quarterback in the same season since 2011.

Jones, the team's leading rusher, left with 7:11 to play in third quarter and didn’t return and the Purdue offense stalled after the freshman left. Purdue ran 16 plays for 19 yards the final 22 minutes. Jones is expected to play here. He has rushed 128 times for 692 yards and eight touchdowns as a rare bright spot.

With a chance to take the lead in the third quarter against Northwestern, Paul Griggs missed a 43-yard field goal. It Griggs’ first attempt since Sept. 26 against Bowling Green and he hasn’t made a field goal since Sept. 19 against Virginia Tech.

Purdue is 5-5 against the spread on college football odds and 5-5 'over/under.'


Big Ten West Division In Iowa's Grasp
I still think Iowa (10-0, 6-0) is incredibly overrated as the Hawkeyes haven't played anyone of note unless you count Pittsburgh, Wisconsin or Northwestern, and I don't. Iowa was very lucky to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive with last week's 40-35 home win over Minnesota.

The Hawkeyes usually win with defense -- rank in the Top 20 nationally in yards and points allowed per game -- but the offense had a season-high 506 yards and scored on seven of 10 possessions, including all four in the first half. The Hawkeyes have scored 30 or more points in four consecutive Big Ten Conference games for the first time in school history. They are also 10-0 for the first time.

C.J. Beathard was 18-for-6 for 213 yards and rushed 10 times for 50 yards and two scores vs. the Gophers. LeShun Daniels Jr. rushed for a career-high 195 yard and three touchdowns on 26 carries.  Iowa has 30 rushing touchdowns on the season, first in the Big Ten and fifth nationally.

Iowa is 6-0 in Kinnick Stadium and enters Saturday’s game looking for a perfect home record for the first time since 2004 (6-0). It also would clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time with a victory. The Hawkeyes earn the division title outright with wins in their final two games or one win and one Wisconsin loss; Iowa, which visits Nebraska next week, holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Badgers. Iowa and Ohio State are two of five remaining undefeated FBS teams and a meeting in the Big Ten Championship Game Dec. 5 in Indianapolis is likely.

The Hawkeyes are 6-4 ATS on college football picks and 6-3-1 O/U.


Last Meeting
Iowa visited West Lafayette last September and won 24-10 -- the Boilers jumped out to a 10-0 lead and the game was still tied late in the third quarter. Then Iowa's Beathard hit Kevonte Martin-Manley on a 23-yard touchdown pass for a 17-10 lead. Mark Weisman's 5-yard run with 5:19 left in the fourth quarter put things away. Purdue's TD was on a 39-yard interception return in the first quarter by Frankie Williams. The Boilers had just nine first downs and 156 total yards. Beathard completed only 17-for-37 for 245 yards with a pick and that TD. Iowa finished with 420 yards of offense, 404 during the final three quarters. The Hawkeyes have won four of the last five meetings. Purdue’s most recent win in the series was a 27-24 decision in Iowa City in 2012. Purdue last beat a ranked Iowa team in 2003. The last time Purdue faced a 10-0 team was Nov. 9, 2002 when No. 3 Ohio State defeated the Boilermakers 10-6.

College Football Picks: Iowa is averaging 211.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks second in the Big Ten. Purdue is last in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing 209.6 yards a game. So give the points and go 'under' at Pinnacle. Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its past seven following an ATS loss. The 'under' is 6-1 in Purdue's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. 

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