College Football Picks: Georgia vs. Vanderbilt

Joe Freda

Thursday, October 17, 2013 1:33 PM GMT

Saturday’s college football betting has Mark Richt's Georgia Bulldogs slated as ‘chalk’ once again, for their visit to Vanderbilt Stadium to face the Commodores.

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The Georgia Bulldogs ended a four-game winning streak with last week’s 41-26 defeat to the Missouri Tigers, failing to cash as 6.5-point home favorites. 

Bulldogs unable to rally

Georgia logged four turnovers in last Saturday’s setback, including a pair of interceptions from quarterback Aaron Murray. The Bulldogs pulled to a 28-26 deficit with 12 minutes remaining, while giving up two unanswered touchdowns in the affair’s final stretch.

Murray threw for 290 yards in a 25-for-45 afternoon, with Bulldogs running backs J.J. Green and Brendan Douglas uniting for 157 rushing yards. Georgia was held to a 4-for-11 mark in third-down conversions, while wide outs Rantavious Wooten and Chris Conley each notched one touchdown.

The Bulldogs’ defense held Missouri to 375 total yards, with 142 coming on the ground (3.8 YPC). Both squads combined for 15 penalties (97 yards), with the duel’s 67 points jumping ‘Over’ the closing ‘total’ of 66.5 by a ‘hook.’

Vandy returns from bye week

Vanderbilt has been idle since October 5th, dropping a 51-28 affair to Missouri as a 2.5-point home dog. The Commodores fell behind by a 20-0 margin in the first quarter, while edged out in total yards, 523-468.

Commodores quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels threw two touchdowns, while taking in a third himself. The senior connected attempts at a 29-for-41 clip, while running back Jerron Seymour logged 65 rushing yards on 12 carries.

Vandy came away with no turnovers, while giving up four scoring strikes through the air from Missouri’s James Franklin. The contest’s combined 79 points flew above the ‘total’ of 56 by the third quarter, lifting the ‘Over’ to 3-1 in the Commodores’ four home dates.

Back Vandy as a home dog

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Georgia opened as an 8.5-point road favorite on the college football odds board, while the ‘total’ was first set at 62. The numbers dropped to 7.5 and 61, respectively, with initial betting favoring Vanderbilt and the ‘Under’.

I am agreeing with the early ‘steam’ here, adding Vanderbilt as a home dog to Saturday’s college football picks.

Vanderbilt cashed ATS in its sole matchup with a ranked foe, losing last month’s contest to the No. 9 South Carolina Gamecocks, 35-25, as a 10.5-point road dog. The Commodores have a 13-6 spread mark through their last 19 matchups in Nashville, while the home team is 3-0 ATS in the last trio of meetings between these SEC rivals.

Georgia has an overvalued 0-3-1 spread record in its last four contests, with the team’s scoring declining to a season-low in last week’s defeat. The Bulldogs may not bounce back easily here, logging a 0-6 ATS slide in their last six spots that came after a double-digit home defeat.

Vanderbilt was a late bloomer at sports betting windows last year, cashing seven of its last nine tickets ATS. The surge began with a 19-15 win over Missouri, shocking the Tigers as a seven-point road dog after the bye week.

For your sports picks, look for the Commodores to come out swinging again here, while having revenge on their minds after last year’s 48-3 thrashing from the Bulldogs in Athens.

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NFL Pick: Back the Vanderbilt Commodores on the spread, +7 (-110) at Bet365

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Check out our College Football Week 8 Betting Odds Report for more info on this week's games!