College Football Picks: Fresno State Won't Stop Air Force's Triple Option Attack

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 7:28 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 7:28 PM UTC

The Fresno State Bulldogs visit the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West Conference game that we will analyze for our Double Rusher of the Week college football pick.

Fresno State vs. Air Force (-17.5) - Saturday, October 20, 2:00 PM EST
Fresno State goes to Colorado Springs this Saturday where they will play the Air Force Academy for their first altitude game of the season. Anybody who watched Cincinnati travel to BYU and get outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter last Thursday will understand the importance of the altitude advantage when teams from sea level travel to the mile high altitude of the Rocky Mountains. But there is oh so much more to this play than just altitude. Before we can consider the situation of the play, let’s turn our attention to the fundamental advantage of this game in which it is all but assured that the Fly Boys of Air Force will Double Rush the Bulldogs of Fresno State.

Even though these teams play in the same Conference, Fresno has not visited AFA in the last 10 years. It will be quite a “breathtaking experience” when they enter Falcon Stadium this Saturday. When they do so, Fresno will be dragging with them a defense that allows 41 PPG, 208 RYPG, and 4.5 YPR. They are clearly ripe to be dominated overland by an Air Force triple option attack that averages 312 YPG on 5.3 YPR. With Fresno averaging just 130/3.6 overland, and Air Force allowing 138/3.8 overland, is there any way that Air Force does not Double Rush Fresno?

Already this season, Air Force has Double Rushed four opponents with a 3-1 ATS mark. Does a 75% ATS win proficiency level sound familiar? Fresno, conversely, has been Double Rushed three times this year, at San Jose, at San Diego State, and vs. Utah State. That 0-3 ATS result saw them lose by a combined 61 points to the spread.

With fundamentals in place, we turn to the situation surrounding today’s game. It is the perfect example of a “double blowout”, which finds the teams meeting with diametrically opposite results from last week’s play. This not only provides great line value, but also aids in the emotional approach each team will have to this game. Fresno hosted UNLV last week, catching the Running Rebels after UNLV upset their rival Nevada on October 3rd, and suffered a hard fought home loss to San Jose State October 10th. The Rebels were ripe to be plucked. With Fresno entering on an 0-5 SU ATS streak, UNLV was clearly overconfident and the line value accrued to the Bulldogs. The result was a 31-28 Fresno win, their only victory since beating ABC (Abilene Christian) in their opener. If you’re thinking flat spot for Fresno off that upset, we are on the same page.

For Air Force, they came into last week following a 4 net turnover loss to Navy, followed by a border rival victory on this field vs Wyoming. Traveling to face struggling in-state rival Colorado State, they were shocked by the Rams, 38-23. Now Air Force returns home with a 3-3 SU ATS record, still needing a trio of victories for Bowl qualification. Do not expect this one to get away from the Falcons, who need a confidence building win.

With the situation backing the fundamentals, it will be no surprise to this bureau if the Fly Boys Falcons work their flex bone offense to perfection in authoring a 4 TD victory against the Fresno State Bulldogs, who will be gasping for air by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. I invite you to join me by putting the college football odds in your favor for my college football pick on Air Force as the Double Rusher of the Week.

College Football Picks: Air Force -17.5 at 5Dimes

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