College Football Picks: Fresno State vs. San Diego State

Jeff Grant

Friday, October 25, 2013 12:31 PM GMT

The Fresno State Bulldogs have one of the more prolific offenses in the country, but they may struggle to move the ball consistently against the San Diego Aztecs Saturday. That being said, where would bettors be safest to place their college football picks in this matchup.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds for this Mountain West Conference matchup at Qualcomm Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.

Take a look at our SBR's College Football Picks for Week 9 Betting Odds Report

Making noise 

Fresno State was ranked No. 17 in the initial BCS standings that came Sunday, as it enters this matchup with a 6-0 SU and 1-5 ATS record.   

The Bulldogs are coming off a 38-14 victory over the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels as 25-point home favorites in Week 8, while going UNDER the betting total for the first time in four contests. 

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, with the OVER going 5-1 in that situation.

Rust factor 

Following three games in 13 days, San Diego State will end a period of no games in 15 days on Saturday. 

Amazingly, the composite score of the 52 previous meetings in this series has San Diego State outscoring Fresno State by a 1,092 to 1,091-point margin. 

College football handicappers need to realize this is the only conference game in the nation played between teams yet to drop a league game this season.

Streaking in the regular season 

The Bulldogs have won 11-straight regular season games—scoring 40 or more points in 10 of those contests. 

Fresno State is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Derek Carr, who ranks second in the country in averaging 379.3 passing yards per game, while throwing 23 touchdown passes.

Winning the ground battle 

In the last 13 meetings in this series, the team with the most rushing yards has won 12 times—a statistic that could make the Aztecs a live home underdog when looking over the college football odds page.

San Diego State has averaged 5.3 yards per rush in gaining 681 yards on the ground over its last three games—hitting pay dirt eight times over that span.

[gameodds]6/247520/?r3=43-19-349/us&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total with their College Football picks, as the UNDER is 8-3 in San Diego State’s last 11 games overall. 

College Football Pick:  Under 62