College Football Picks For Thursday Night Action - Totals Value in Utah, Georgia Southern Tilts

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 9, 2016 4:46 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016 4:46 PM UTC

A pair of totals predictions in the Utah-Arizona State and Louisiana Lafayette-Georgia Southern contests top our Thursday night college football picks. Check out the plays here.

No. 13 Utah (-6) vs Arizona State

This is only the second time in the last 12 meetings the Utes are favored in the series, winning 34-18 last year as 5.5-point chalk. Utah, in fact, is winless at Sun Devil Stadium in the past four decades, going 0-8 straight up (4-4 ATS).

This isn’t a good spot for the Utes in the betting market historically. They are just 1-6 ATS as a road favorite in Pac-12 play since joining the conference in 2011, and the one cover was a double-overtime victory (29-23) over Oregon State in 2014.

The Sun Devils face the fewest rushing plays in the nation defensively, allowing only 3.9 yards per attempt. It counters Utah’s potent ground attack (223.8 rushing ypg) well. Part of the reason is because the secondary is atrocious. It allows 401.1 passing yards per game, most of any FBS team. To be fair, the unit has face three of the most prolific Air Raid offenses this season in Washington State, Cal, and Texas Tech.

These two haven’t scored more than 52 points combined in the last five matchups, but expect more this time around. Arizona State has held one FBS opponent below their projected team total all season. That was a game against UCLA in which the Bruins turned it over four times and saw starting quarterback Josh Rosen knocked out of the contest. The Sun Devils will keep it close, but not without giving up 30-plus points.

Free College Football Pick: OVER 57Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3028176, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,1096,180,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Louisiana-Lafayette vs Georgia Southern (-8)

Since 2014, the UNDER is 15-5-1 when Georgia Southern takes on a conference foe, the last six staying south of the total. The Eagles' offense is particularly underwhelming this season, averaging only 21 points per game in five against Sun Belt opponents. The team is staying 12.3 points under its team total predictions on average during this span. The offense, though, found a spark last weekend, dropping 27 points on 401 total yards against the mighty Ole Miss. Expect confidence in the run-option attack to carry over and prove successful again on Thursday night.  

Louisiana-Lafayette owns the ninth-most efficient run defense in the nation, allowing 3.2 yards per carry. But they’ve only faced two teams all season owning better than college football’s average of 4.4 yards headed into a clash. Including last season, they’ve allowed 33.3 points per game in six to those accruing more.

The key to surpassing the total will likely be the Ragin’ Cajuns offensive production. They are 7-3 ATS as a road dog in Sun Belt play under head coach Mark Hudspeth, so are likely to remain competitive. In two efforts as a road underdog this season, though, it has scored 7 and 16 points in regulation time, staying under expectations in each.

Check out our pick in Thursday night's third contest between UNC and Duke here.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!


Free College Football Pick: OVER 46.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3028176, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,1096,180,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here