College Football Picks: Florida State vs. Wake Forest in Week 11

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 8:44 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013 8:44 PM UTC

The potential recipients of Florida State's wrath this week are the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who host the Seminoles Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. Which team have we decided to place our money on for our NCAAF pick?

The Florida State Seminoles are back at No. 2 in this week's BCS standings. But to stay there the 'Noles will have to do more than just win out the rest of this season; they'll have to blow people out.

Thanks to the system in place wins alone don't decide who gets to play for the national championship; those wins have to impress the voters, to improve one's standing in the polls, which in turn helps one's standings in the BCS rankings.

Take a look at our SBR's College Football Picks for Week 11 Betting Odds Report

The Betting Lines

Early this week most college football odd outlets opened this game with Florida State favored by 35 points, the total proffered at 54; both those numbers held steady in the early betting.

FSU-Wake Game Set-Up

Florida State began this season as the favorite to win the ACC; now the 'Noles are just one conference victory away from clinching a spot in the ACC championship game.

FSU opened with a 41-13 win over Pitt, bombed Nevada and Bethune-Cookman, then beat Boston College 48-34, Maryland 63-0, Clemson 51-14 and North Carolina State 49-17.

Last week the 'Noles pulled away from then-unbeaten Miami for a 41-14 victory. Florida State only led by a touchdown at the half, but out-scored the Hurricanes 20-0 in the second half, and covered the spread as 22-point favorites.

On the home side of this match-up Wake Forest began this season with 15 returning starters and a goal of getting back to a bowl, after missing out last year.

Heading into their last three games the Deacons need two more victories to become bowl-eligible.

Wake opened this season with a 31-7 victory over Presbyterian, then lost consecutive games to Boston College and Louisiana-Monroe. The Deacs then beat Army but got blown out at Clemson 56-7.

Wake Forest then pulled back-to-back point-spread upsets of NC State and Maryland, and then nearly upset then-unbeaten Miami, allowing a late score in a 24-21 loss.

Last week the Deacons got held to less than 200 yards of offense in losing at Syracuse 13-0.

Recent History

As hard as this might be to believe, Wake Forest has actually beaten Florida State four of the last seven meetings. Most recently, in 2011, the Deacons upset the 'Noles as 10-point home dogs 35-30.

But last year the Seminoles, as 28-point home favorites, destroyed the Deacons 52-0. FSU out-gained Wake 612-126 and went OVER the total – 50 – by itself.

Injury Update

Wake Forest will be without its main offensive weapon, WR Michael Campanaro, who suffered a broken collarbone last week. With 67 catches for 803 yards this season Campanaro has accounted for nearly 30 percent of Wake's offense, statistically.

FSU-Wake Betting Trends

Florida State is 6-2 ATS this season, 3-2 ATS as favorites of three touchdowns or more.

Wake Forest is 4-5 ATS, 1-1 ATS as dogs of more than three touchdowns.

FSU is 7-1 on the OVER/UNDERS this season, as 'Noles games have averaged 64 points.

Wake is 1-8 on the totals, as Deacons games have averaged 39 points. 

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Our Take on Saturday's Game

Florida State is going to win this game; if they don't, it will be one of the biggest point-spread upsets in college football history.

And the motivation is there for the Seminoles to cover the big number; a lackluster performance and/or a close game might cost them dearly in their effort to stay at No. 2 in the BCS standings.

Wake is without Campanaro, which bodes incredibly well for FSU's swarming defense.

Finally, if this game were being played in Tallahassee, the 'Noles might be favored by 40 points, or more. So getting them at -35 might be considered a bargain.

As unsportsmanlike as it sounds Florida State can't just win this game to stay in the national title hunt; it's got to win big, possibly post a shut-out. Expect the Seminoles to keep playing their starters, even if they already have the game in the bag.  

So we'll give the big points and go with the 'Noles for our free NCAAF pick for Saturday.

College Football Pick: Take Florida State at the -34.5

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