College Football Picks: Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, October 8, 2013 2:04 PM GMT

The Florida Gators will be dressing up as underdogs for the first time this year, as they prepare to take on the LSU Tigers Saturday afternoon. Find out why we believe that the spread offers great value for our college football picks in this SEC battle.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds for this Southeastern Conference matchup at Tiger Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 6.

Winning the stat battle 

Florida has compiled a 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS record through five games this season—winning the statistical battle in each of those contests by at least 80 yards. 

College football handicappers are certainly aware that the Gators possess one of the top defensive units nationally, as it allows just 217 yards per game, including just 65 on the ground.

The Gators are 6-4 SUATS on the road the last two-plus seasons, with no clear edge in terms of the betting total (5-5 Over/Under). 

Bounce-back effort

LSU came away with an impressive 59-26 victory over the Mississippi State Bulldogs as seven-point road favorites last Saturday, while going OVER the betting total for the sixth time in as many opportunities this season.

The LSU Tigers are 27-1 SU in their last 28 home games, but they’ve been known to have less of an advantage during the day than at night at this venue. 

Middle of the game is important 

There’s no doubt that the Gators will be up against it in the early going on the road against the Tigers, but they’ve outscored their opponents by a lopsided 79-12 margin in the second and third quarters this season. 

Florida will focus on winning the time-of-possession battle—allowing quarterback Tyler Murphy to ease into the game.  He has completed 72.2 percent of his passes for 530 yards and five touchdowns with a single interception since Jeff Driskel’s injury.

30 is the key number 

The Tigers have scored 30 or more points in their first six games of a season for the first time in school history—a number that’s very important in determining the outcome of his heavyweight fight on the gridiron. 

Since head coach Les Miles arrived in Baton Rouge, LSU has compiled a 63-5 record when hitting the 30-point mark, but it faces an opponent in this matchup that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in 12 straight SEC games.

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Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Gators with their college football picks, as they’ve covered the number in six of their last seven trips to this venue.

College Football Pick:  Florida Gators +7.5

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