College Football Picks: Fade These Defenses as Favorites and Snag 70% ATS Winnings

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 25, 2015 7:38 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2015 7:38 PM GMT

Keep this list handy, so you can look at these teams’ performance in September.  By the time October rolls around, you will be fading teams who qualify when they are installed as chalk. 

In August 2015, we have made an extensive journey in preparation for the upcoming NFL and College Football betting seasons.  Much of it has been a statistical adventure focusing on the profits we can reap from handicapping the rushing proficiency, or lack thereof, of NFL and College Football teams.  Last week, we combined that type of statistical thinking with a College Football role that produced 75% profits, the double rush theory.  This week, we go to the other end of the spectrum for a group of PHONY FAVORITES who fared poorly in last year’s 2014 CFB season.

Much like our top-rated defensive teams, these false favorites share a group of common defensive statistics.  With increased scoring, up to 28 PPG, in College Football last season, the parameters of these teams have been extended from years gone by.  Nonetheless, the results have been consistent with the past.  In the chart below, you will note that the common thread among each of these teams is that they all allow 35 PPG, at least 450 YPG, and at least 200 YPG overland.  You wanted no part of these teams last year, as the record which follows this chart will indicate!  Now, let’s take a look at our 17 teams that comprise our list of PHONY FAVORITES.

 

TEAM

SU

ATS

FAV

ATS

DEF

PTS

DEF

YDS

DEF

RY

DEF

RTN

DL

RTN

California

5-7

6-5

0-3

40

512

145

9

3

Colorado

2-10

6-6

1-2

39

460

205

9

3

E. Michigan

2-10

5-6

0-0

41

499

225

8

3

Georgia St.

1-11

5-6

0-1

43

497

303

9

3

Idaho

1-10

4-7

1-2

37

462

248

6

2

Iowa St.

2-10

4-7

1-2

39

529

246

6

2

New Mexico

4-8

6-6

1-2

36

517

268

8

2

New Mexico St.

2-10

3-8

0-0

39

483

309

10

3

N. Carolina

6-7

5-7

2-3

39

498

241

7

2

Old Dominion

6-6

4-7

0-3

38

454

224

4

1

SMU

1-11

4-8

0-0

41

499

235

7

2

S. Mississippi

3-9

5-6

0-0

35

451

216

4

2

Texas Tech

4-8

6-5

1-2

41

513

260

7

1

Troy

3-9

6-5

2-2

36

451

245

7

3

Tulsa

2-10

5-7

1-3

39

487

215

6

3

UNLV

2-11

5-7

0-1

38

513

294

5

1

W. Kentucky

8-5

6-7

3-4

40

510

221

9

4

 

As you can see, the record for these teams overall is 54-152 SU (26%) and 85-110 ATS (43.6%).  But when those setting the College Football odds made the mistake of installing these teams as favorites, their record dropped to a meager 30% ATS.  To state it briefly, here is the way in which we would have profited from these teams’ performance in 2014 CFB.

PLAY AGAINST ANY CFB TEAM WHO ALLOWS 35 OR MORE PPG, 450 YPG AND 200 OR MORE RYPG

30-13 ATS (70%)

Keep this list handy, so that you can look at these teams’ performance out of the gate in September.  By the time October rolls around, you will want to be making your own list of the 2015 teams who qualify under these parameters and begin to make your College Football picks to go against them  them on a regular basis when they are installed as chalk.  Along with your list of defensive dominators in the underdog role, they can provide plenty of pointspread success for your 2015 College Football betting season.

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