College Football Picks: Fade Kansas State at Home Against Baylor (-17)

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 10:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 10:40 PM UTC

Will the Bears keep the momentum going with another big Big 12 win? They'll enter Thursday night's game against Kansas State as the overwhelming favorites on the college football odds board.

Odds Overview
At time of writing, the Bears were favored by as many as 17.5 points on the college football odds board, though some sportsbooks here and there are offering up a number of 17 for those wanting to back the favorites. Whenever Baylor is involved, we can expect tons of points, and that holds true for Thursday night's game; the total is listed at 69.5 points as of now.


Kansas State Wildcats
It's safe to say the Wildcats have hit a wall ever since Big 12 play begun, as they've lost each of their first four conference games of the season (Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma and Texas). They were a perfect 3-0 in non-conference action, but the step-up in competition has proven to be too much.

The last couple of weeks have been particularly brutal, as Kansas State got crushed 55-0 at home against Oklahoma and then could only muster up nine points in a 23-9 road loss to Texas. That kind of offensive futility is obviously not going to cut it against a team like Baylor, who is essentially going to score every time they have the ball, some way or another. 

That means it's up to QB Joe Hubener to lead the way and get this Wildcats offense firing on all cylinders. The Bears don't have an imposing defense and allow their fair share of points, so the opportunity is there for Hubener, Charles Jones, Justin Silmon, Deante Burton, Dominique Heath and Kody Cook, among others, to contribute as much as possible. Ineffectiveness just isn't going to cut it here on Thursday night against the #2-ranked team in the country.


Baylor Bears
So yeah, Baylor's a pretty good football team. The Bears have still yet to lose a game this season, and they're averaging an unheard of 61.0 points per game -- not bad, right? They've been good for 347.9 passing yards (10th in the country) and 338.3 rushing yards (third in the nation) a contest, and their offensive efficiency has been out of this world.

To be fair, though, Baylor hasn't exactly faced a gauntlet in terms of their strength of schedule thus far, as the Bears haven't faced a ranked opponent heading into Thursday. Things are about to get a lot tougher however, with upcoming matchups against Oklahoma (at home), Oklahoma State (on the road) and TCU (on the road) on the horizon. We'll get a good idea of just how legit Baylor is when that stretch is over and done with.

Looking at the stats closer, we can see just how dominant Seth Russell and company have been. Russell has thrown for 2104 yards and 29 touchdowns already, while running for an additional 402 yards and six scores. RB Shock Linwood has 974 rushing yards and ten total touchdowns, while Corey Coleman has already recorded 47 receptions for 962 yards and 18 trips to the end zone. Wow. Best of luck, Wildcats!


Betting Analysis
Though we have seen Kansas State hang around with the likes of TCU and Oklahoma State, both of whom boast top-tier offenses, they've also laid some duds, and that gives us pause when considering backing the home team on this occasion.

Of course, it doesn't take much to convince us to side with a team like Baylor, an offensive juggernaut that's shown little mercy to their opponents all season long.

We can expect a rowdy crowd in Manhattan on Thursday, but we just don't see how the Wildcats will be able to keep pace offensively here. It may be a lot of points to lay with your college football picks, but the Bears have proven they can cover the large numbers, and we think they'll be able to do it again in this situation.

College Football Picks: Baylor Bears -17 at 5Dimes

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