College Football Picks: Explosive Cincy Offense to Take Down UConn

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 22, 2015 7:22 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 7:22 PM GMT

We have in our hands an ACC Conference matchup, as Connecticut will travel to Cincinnati. Read our inside look and find out what's the most profitable college football pick.

UConn vs. Cincinnati  4:30PM ET
This Saturday afternoon at 4:30 ET as televised on CBC TV, UConn will travel to Cincinnati for this AAC Conference game. Last year, this game was a no contender as the Bearcats whipped UConn (41-0), outgaining them 425-129. The year before that, on this field, it was (41-16) as 14 point home chalk. Normally, big dog shutout revenge would favor the visitor. But, since the Bearcats are 0-2 SU in league play and come off an embarrassing 4th quarter at BYU, there will obviously be no letdown on the part of Cincinnati. 

UConn enters here at 4-3 ATS, covering by a net of 44 points. Cincinnati enters at 2-4 ATS, failing to the pointspread by a combined 25 points. This performance has resulted in a line that is arguably 10 points less than where it would have been opening week. In last week’s Pointspread Prognosis, when analyzing the Michigan St. vs. Michigan game, in which the Spartans had a (-120) net AFP differential, I pointed out that there were an additional 10 games who qualified as AFP plays. To remind you once again, a favoring negative net AFP differential play takes place when our team IS (-20) or worse net points from the apread in YTD action, and is playing  ateam who has a positive net AFP differential of +20 or more in YTD action. When the sum is 50 or more points and today’s line is 7 or more points from the projected line on opening week, it is an over 60% play favoring our negative net AFP diff team. These AFP plays went 9-2 ATS last week. This week’s very contrary NET AFP diff plays include UCLA, Ball St., Miami, OH, Tulane, Wyoming, Virginia, UCF and ODU, along with this Cincinnati team. Be very careful when fading any of these ugly dogs who appear to be pure momentum play against teams.

In today’s contest, we back an explosive Bearcat offense that will be looking to regain their confidence, after a 0-2 SU Conference start and a 21 point defensive meltdown at the altitude of Provo last Friday night resulted in a (38-24) loss. Look for a victory much in line with the 4 consecutive series wins by an average of 23 PPG, including a combined count of 82-16 the last 2 seasons. Don’t worry about UConn revenge! They have failed to cover the number the last 6 times as double digit road dog with revenge. Once the Huskies fall behind, they have no shot at playing catchup with a pop-gun offense that averages just 20/353.  

In our value laden college football pick,we back the Bearcats as our AFP game of the week. In a contest where the college football odds are clearly in our favor.

College Football Pick: Cincinnati -12.5 at TheGreek

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