College Football Picks: Expect Early Week 10 Lines to Shift

Doug Upstone

Monday, November 2, 2015 1:05 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 2, 2015 1:05 PM GMT

It's November, and it's time to prove what you have for conference contenders. With big games over the next month everywhere, interest with be even keener for the sportsbooks college football odds.

While the focus will be on the Final Four playoff contenders and those trying to win conference championships, the vast majority of squads are trying to become bowl eligible, which means a threat for the players and extra practice time for coaches looking ahead to next season.

Our attention is in the here and now for college football picks, and after looking at some of the early lines, there are some teams who will have different numbers as the week moves ahead for various reasons in my opinion. Here are clubs to look at for college football odds from BetOnline and watch to see if my projections are correct.

 

Illinois -1.5 point Road Favorite versus Purdue
Illinois a road favorite, seriously! I understand Purdue is only 2-6 compared to the supposed Fighting Illini sporting a 4-4 record, but Illinois line Big Ten victory is against Nebraska 14-13, which the Boilermakers bettered at 55-45. Purdue is the lesser defensive team, but Illinois has averaged 11.7 point a game in league play and are averaging a putrid 67.2 yards per game on the ground. With the Boilers 6-2 and 5-2-1 ATS in rent games, as a football handicapper, I have to make Purdue a favorite at Ross-Ade Stadium.

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Georgia -17 point Home Favorite versus Kentucky
Do not recall ever seeing a Mark Richt Georgia team this anemic on offense. In three of their last four games they have scored 10, 9 and 3 points, with 31 tossed in the group when they lost at Tennessee. The quarterback play was not good before Nick Chubb was hurt but since, it's been far worse in not making any plays. The schedule is no excuse either, because while Alabama and Florida have excellent defensive teams, this is Georgia we are talking about, not Georgia State. With the Dawgs only 4-5 ATS against Kentucky recently, look for this number to drop to around 15 points.

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Florida -19 point Home Favorite over Vanderbilt
If you have been watching Gators football, their offense is like windy day at nearby Orange Lake, very choppy. However, that is more than you can say for Vanderbilt, whose offense is like a bad Kenny Chesney impersonator, out of tune. The Commodores are 125th in scoring offense at 15.7 PPG and after being shut-out by Houston, prospects are not good to reach double digits against Florida's defense, which is seventh nationally in points allowed (15.5). Though the Vandy defense is quite effective, look for the Gators to be -21 point favorites or better by Saturday.

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N.C. State -2 point Road Favorite versus Boston College
Give N.C. State a lot of credit for never quitting against superior Clemson team. While case could be made, their offense was somewhat phony with early easy schedule, putting 41 points on the Tigers shows the Wolfpack can score. Since knocking off a couple of FCS patsies to start the season, Boston College has totalled eight touchdowns in seven contests and is averaging 15.1 PPG. The Eagles defense has been great all year, but if they were to fall behind 10-0 early, what resources do they have to recover? N.C. State by at least -4.

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Oregon -5.5 point Home Favorite versus California
The Oregon defense is still abysmal, but you may have noticed the offense has come around in the Ducks 3-1 SU and ATS record in the last four games. California has proven to be fool's gold once again, and defense has conceded 32.1 PPG in their last six. While it is true Oregon is 2-2 and 0-4 ATS at Autzen Stadium this season, for sports picks I would lock this one up now, because the Ducks will be a touchdown for favorite later.

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USC -16.5 point Home Favorite versus Arizona
This was the USC team we were expecting, as least offensively. It was not missed by this writer that the Trojans are also more fluid on offense since the coaching change and better utilizing all their varied weapons. Arizona beat weak Pac-12 foes Oregon State and Colorado, but is 0-4 SU and ATS against Washington, Washington State, Stanford, and UCLA. The Men of Troy at or close to -20 home favorites.

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