College Football Picks: Early Value Found In Championship Week

Oklahoma State Cowboys players celebrating

Monday, November 28, 2016 3:47 PM GMT

Check out these early value college football picks in the ACC and AAC championship games featuring Clemson vs.Virginia Tech and Temple vs. Navy. Also join us for more betting edge as Oklahoma State is catching too many points in the Bedlam Series.

 

Clemson Tigers vs Virginia Tech Hokies  

This game will likely boil down to Clemson’s ability to run the ball. The Tigers score nearly 15 points more a game (51.5 to 36.4) when up against ineffective rush defenses that allow greater than 4.0 yards per carry. Three of the Tigers’ 50-point plus efforts, in fact, came against such units. Better containment of quarterback Deshaun Watson puts a dent in Clemson’s ability to move the ball and reach the end zone.

The Hokies enter this matchup allowing 3.9 yards per rushing attempt, holding 8 teams to 180 yards or less on the ground this season. Losses against Tennessee (239) and Georgia Tech (309) occurred when giving up 230 rushing yards or more in a game, the most they have allowed all season.

Virginia Tech’s offense is the biggest surprise in Blacksburg this season and should hold its own against a stout Clemson defense. Averaging 35.0 points per game, the team has scored over the betting market’s projected team total in 8 of 12 games. Head coach Dabo Swinney's defense has stuffed poor offenses all season, allowing no more than 13 points in any of the six matchups against unit’s scoring 30 or less per contest. Versus those averaging more, it yields 30.8 per game, only once holding a foe (N.C. State, 17) below 24 points.

The line opened at -8 for Clemson but has adjusted up and down within the first few hours of trading. Top-rated sports book BetOnline is one of a few online outlets dealing +9.5 on Sunday night. Catch the early value there for your college football picks.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Virginia Tech +9.5

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Oklahoma Sooners 

Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops has owned the Bedlam Series, going 13-4 SU and 9-7-1 ATS. Much of the dominance came early in his tenure, though. The Sooners have lost two of the last six matchups, and their 58-23 win last season was the only time in this stretch winning by more than nine points.

The Cowboys own a 13.2 average winning margin on the season, the Sooners a 14.7 differential. Historically, the gap is much wider in favor of Oklahoma. When the Sooners kick off with a 3-point advantage or less, they are 9-3 overall but have won by more than 10 points once. Expect a close one.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma State +13

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen

Not to bring up the old cliché defense wins championships, but Temple’s unit is on fire to close out the year. It gave up 23 points overall in its last four games and held opponents below their projected team total in the last six. The Owls have rewarded backers all year, going 10-0 ATS since failing to cover in the opener against Army.

The spread is up to field goal in favor of Navy after a -1.5 initial offer. Hold off and wait for the line to cross the key number and buy in at -3.5 points.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Temple

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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