College Football Picks: Double Rush Theory Produces 75% Winners

Joe Gavazzi

Sunday, December 6, 2015 4:07 PM GMT

This list is an indication of success that can be achieved with overland dominance in the world of College Football betting. Consider the results before making your College Football picks. 

We are winding down a long journey in which we have analyzed a group of statistical indicators that point out a team’s success or lack of success at the point of attack.  These indicators in turn lead us to pointspread success when used in ways that have proven to be historically profitable.  This is a companion article to Part I of this brief series.  Each of these articles is meant to isolate teams from the 2014 CFB season whose statistics overland can help us to highlight early season trends and select winners and losers with our College Football picks using the “Double Rush” theory.  This is yet another example of the fact that you can’t know where you are going, unless you know where you have been.  At the conclusion of the article, I will repeat the outstanding record of College Football Double Rushers.  

In the chart that follows, I will point out the 2014 CFB teams that were dominated by their opposition at the point of attack.  The common characteristic of these teams is that they were all outrushed by an average of more than 100 YPG.  Along with other columns listed, this list will help us to isolate teams who are likely to be dominated overland in the early going of the upcoming 2015 CFB season.  

 

TEAM

CON

YRS

2014

SU

2015

ATS

OFF

RY

OFF

TY

DEF

RY

DEF

TY

DEF

RTN

DL

RTN

Georgia St.

3

1-11

5-6

98

377

303

497

9

3

Idaho

1

1-10

4-7

140

412

248

462

6

2

Illinois

2

6-7

5-7

117

367

239

456

7

2

Iowa St.

1

2-10

4-7

124

372

246

529

6

2

Kent St.

1

2-9

5-6

82

315

215

431

8

2

New Mexico St.

3

2-10

3-8

177

415

309

483

10

3

SMU

1

1-11

4-8

100

269

235

499

7

2

S. Mississippi

2

3-9

5-6

96

365

216

451

4

2

Texas Tech

1

4-8

6-5

153

504

260

513

7

1

LA Monroe

1

4-8

5-7

69

349

183

373

8

2

UNLV

1

2-11

5-7

129

387

294

513

5

1

Wake Forest

1

3-9

6-5

40

216

183

369

7

3

Washington St.

3

3-9

3-8

40

520

146

442

7

2

 

As you can see from the combined record of 34-122 SU, 60-85 ATS, you want little to do with these teams who get dominated at the point of attack.  A great example of how important a running game might be would be a look at Washington St.  Playing in the pass-happy PAC 12 and coached by pass-game guru, Mike Leach, the Cougars passed for 480 YPG, the best in the nation, and outgained the opposition by an average of 78 YPG.  But because they were dominated at the point of attack, 146-40, the Cougars concluded the year with a mark of 3-9 SU, 3-8 ATS.  It was the 3rdconsecutive losing season under Leach, who has proven that a passing game alone does not indicate success in the college football wars.

This list, along with the companion list of teams who outrush their foes by 100 or more YPG in 2014, is only an indication of the success that can be achieved with overland dominance in the world of CFB.  Consider the results from the last 4 years in this category:

726-237 ATS (75%) …

THE RECORD OF ANY TEAM WHO DOUBLE RUSHES THEIR OPPONENT IN A CONTEST

This list, along with its companion list of teams who outrush foes by an average of 100 YPG in 2014, will provide a solid head start for September handicapping.  After each team has played 3 or 4 games, and assuming an equal strength of schedule, you can begin to handicap the games based on the merits of the yardage for the current season.  Each week on this site we isolate trends to crush the College Football odds and highlighting the best bets on the card every week.