College Football Picks: Dominant Memphis to Win & Cover Against SMU

Steven Suarez

Friday, November 27, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Will the Tigers stop the bleeding this weekend? They've lost three straight games, but enter this matchup with the Mustangs as the clear-cut chalk on the college football odds board.

Odds Overview
Are you surprised to see the Tigers favored by 21.5 to 22 points on the college football odds board? Perhaps you shouldn't be. After all, Memphis has enjoyed a fine season overall and will be at home, while SMU has been pretty terrible.

The Tigers have one of the most prolific offenses in the country, and the Mustangs have been brutal defensively (allowing an insane 44.1 points per game), so the high total of 71.5 makes sense.


Memphis Tigers
Rewind back to October 31st. The Tigers had just wrapped up a 41-13 home win over Tulane, a win that pushed them to 8-0 overall. Included in that run was a standout victory over Ole Miss, so it's not like they were just beating up on bad competition.

Unfortunately for Memphis, the good times have come crashing to a halt, as the team has dropped three straight games ahead of the weekend. The Tigers have fallen to Navy (45-20), Houston (35-34) and Temple (31-12) all in the last month; sure, all three are solid teams and by no means easy to beat, but Memphis can't have been happy to lose by 25 at home to the Midshipmen and then get trounced by 19 on the road against the Owls. That road defeat against the Cougars was a little bit more acceptable.

Nevertheless, what this all means is the Tigers are going to be dying to get back out on the field and taste victory again. What better opponent to face than the Mustangs? 


SMU Mustangs
Having won just two games all season long, it's fair to say this season hasn't gone too well for the Mustangs. Their offensive production has been decent -- they're averaging an even 29 points per game -- but they've been atrocious defensively, as we noted in the odds overview above. You can't expect to give up over 44 points a game and expect to stay competitive on a consistent basis.

Last week however, SMU showed up on both ends of the field in a 49-21 win over Tulane. All of the Mustangs' damage came on the ground, with QB Matt Davis, Xavier Jones, Prescott Line and Braeden West combining for 44 rushes for 323 yards and six touchdowns. Davis ran for 156 yards and a score, while Jones had 117 rushing yards and three trips to the end zone in the 28-point victory for SMU.

Don't expect that kind of emphasis on the run against Memphis, considering the Mustangs are likely to be trailing and having to throw the ball more than anything else. Davis has been making a lot of plays with both his arm and legs, and he's going to need to have a huge game for SMU to have any chance at all.


Final Analysis
This should be one-way traffic throughout, and we're fully expecting a dominant Memphis win at the end of the day.

For one, the Tigers are going to be pissed off and motivated to get back to winning after this three-game losing streak of theirs. They're going to want to put on a good show for their fans, and they come up against an SMU team that's been truly awful throughout the season.

What's more, Memphis is one of the few programs out there that has the offensive capability to score practically every time they have the ball, and we don't see them facing much resistance, if at all. Some may be a little hesitant to take on such a large number, but we see the Tigers controlling this game from the start and not letting up, on their way to the SU win and ATS cover.

College Football Pick: Memphis -21.5 at 5Dimes

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