December 29th Bowls Game-By-Game Totals College Football Picks

Thursday, December 27, 2018 7:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 27, 2018 7:24 PM UTC

The focus of the day will be on the two national semi-finals contests. But there are still three other games on the docket, all which provide chances to cash.

Arizona Bowl:Arkansas State (3-8 O/U) vs. Nevada (4-6-1 O/U)Saturday, Dec. 29, 1:15 p.m. ET (CBSSN)Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZFree NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: Heritage

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This bowl game total offers several fascinating elements. To begin with, the total opened at 58.5 and that has fallen to 55.5. That would seem contrary to Arkansas State averaging 58.1 total points a contest and Nevada at 60.4 total points. Yet, when you look above at the team names, we find two teams that are a combined 14-7-1 UNDER and at last look, the college football odds at sportsbooks that show bet percentages, 67 percent are also on the UNDER. What to think?

Here is one way to look at these teams and it could be the correct way. The Red Wolves and the Wolf Pack each started slow, but rushed to the regular season finish line. Arkansas State closed on a 5-1 and a 4-0 sprint and Nevada would have entered the Arizona Bowl on a 5-0 run had they not blown a 23-0 lead to rival UNLV in their last contest.

The key for both, defense. Of course who they played comes into play, however, hard to ignore Arky State has allowed 13.5 PPG in last four and Reno's finest is at 25.2 in their final five outings. Arkansas State is 25-11 UNDER the last three teams and the last six times they faced a winning team, a perfect 6-0 UNDER. There you have it!

PEACH Bowl:Florida (6-5 O/U) vs. Michigan (6-5-1 O/U)Saturday, Dec. 29, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GAFree NCAAF Pick: OverBest Line Offered: Heritage

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With a total of 50 in the first Super 6 bowl battle, this is easy pickings, right? Michigan (17.6 PPG) and Florida (20.4 PPG) were both in the Top 21 in fewest points allowed and in the Top 30 in total defense. (Michigan - 1st and Florida - 26th) The Wolverines do not figure to be quite as strong with couple starters not playing, but, that is also true of Jim Harbaugh's offense which has the same number missing.

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After being like buffalo wings with blue cheese and celery (hot and cold), Florida's offense clicked, albeit, versus lesser competition, nevertheless, the Gators averaged 46.3 PPG in their last three contests. Michigan's defensive front struggled down the stretch, permitting 210.6 YPG rushing, which is a concern with Florida running a balanced offense.

Those making college football picks are just below 60 percent favoring the Under. We are going against the norm, not 100% convinced we will see the same Wolverines defense we saw the first 11 games and we know Michigan is 12-2 OVER vs. teams averaging 31 or more PPG. Add in when the total falls this much in this range, the OVER is 22-10, that's where we are headed.

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Belk Bowl:South Carolina (7-5 O/U) vs. Virginia (6-5 O/U)Saturday, Dec. 29, 12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NCFree NCAAF Pick: OverBest Line Offered: Heritage

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The Belk Bowl has barely moved, starting at 55, now at 54.5, with just over 60 percent of bettor on the OVER. South Carolina has the better offense (32 vs. 28 PPG), largely due QB Jake Bentley, who played smarter football the second half of the season. Bentley does toss too many picks (12), yet is far more consistent than Virginia's Bryce Perkins.

The Cavaliers are faster and stronger on defense (21 vs. 27 PPG allowed) and permitted 92 fewer YPG. Why Virginia closed 1-3 to end the season is their defensive front seven could not stop the run and they were gouged for 245 YPG, compared to the season average of 157.

In truth, the total looks accurate. Because traveling is not an issue for either team, the crowd should be lively and we will call for a free-flowing big-play offensive day. Besides, the Cavaliers are 10-2 OVER in December bowl games, the OVER gets the call.

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