Don't Expect Scoreboards To Blow Up On December 27th Bowls

Wednesday, December 26, 2018 1:32 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 26, 2018 1:32 PM UTC

The bowls action continues on Thursday with another trio of encounters, from the Big Apple all the way to the Deep South with predictions on totals.

Independence BowlDuke (6-6 O/U) vs. Temple (5-6 O/U)Thursday, Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LAFree NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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Since being 3-3 on totals, Duke has alternated Under's and Over's (in that order) in their last half dozen starts. There has not been any rhyme or reason for the outcomes for the Blue Devils. Instead, it has been a mixture of good and or bad offense, with the same true of defense. With the college football odds having dropped to 54 points, Duke fits the nearly perfect profile. The Dukies average 27.2 PPG and allow 27.4 PPG.

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Temple got after it today! They look ready for Thursday!

— Walk-On's Independence Bowl (@IndyBowl) December 25, 2018

Temple is much better offensively than Duke at 35.6 PPG and marginally better on defense at 24.7 PPG, though it should be noted it was against lesser competition than what the Blue Devils faced. In the Owls last three away games, the offense was terrific with the defense vulnerable twice, as the average total scores were 88 PPG.

In spite of this, both teams have UNDER tendencies. Duke is 11-3 UNDER when facing foes that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per game and Temple is 14-4 UNDER after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous outing. Let's follow the trail.

Pinstripe BowlMiami (5-6 O/U) vs. Wisconsin (6-6 O/U)Thursday, Dec. 27, 5:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NYFree NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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The Pinstripe Bowl is the lowest total of the day at 47.5 and it is a tricky one. The reason for saying this both teams propensity for making mistakes, which either could enhance or decrease scoring chances. Miami has committed at least two turnovers in nine of their dozen starts while Wisconsin only had one clean contest all year and coughed the pigskin up two to four times on seven occasions. At the same time, both defenses have generated multiple turnovers all season long.

While there no way to deduct the direct correlation of mistakes, there appears to be enough defense to slow both offenses. Wisconsin is a respectable 43rd in fewest points allowed at 24.3, with Miami even better at No.15 at 18.2 PPG. Whatever quarterback or quarterbacks play, they have had problems all year in finishing drives, with turnovers and errant passes that stalled their offenses.

With the Hurricanes 13-1 UNDER versus teams averaging 425 or more yards game and still having memories of Wisconsin ringing up 34 points on them in last year's Orange Bowl, let's back the lower score for college football picks.

Texas BowlVanderbilt (3-9 O/U) vs. Baylor (5-6 O/U)Thursday, Dec. 27, 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)NRG Stadium - Houston, TXFree NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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With each of these squads having to win there last contest of the regular season to be bowl eligible, they should be excited to be in Houston. At first look with a total of 55 points, this idea of an Over was appealing. Baylor produces a solid 442 YPG which is 34th nationally, but they were a little bit underachieving when it comes to points scored at 28.2 PPG, which is 2.2 fewer than the teams they have faced had conceded this season.

While Baylor was in the more offensive-minded Big 12, Vanderbilt had to face teams in the SEC, that focus mostly on defense and speed. Vanderbilt's 27.7 PPG was actually two points more than what opposing teams gave up. The Commodores did allow 25.1 PPG, which was more than five points lower than what those 12 teams averaged against everyone else.

Here is why we think there will be a trio of UNDER's today. Yards per point is a measure of efficiency. In looking at the numbers of these two teams, Vandy is hardly dandy at 77th in the country and Baylor is far worse at 104th. Take the UNDER 55.

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